Please find attached our update to the April note on the pharma/biotech M&A cycle. It covers every transaction announced between 8 April and 5 November 2026.
OVERNIGHT, UNCONFIRMED. The Wall Street Journal and Reuters reported last night, citing people familiar with the matter, that AstraZeneca made a non-binding offer of about $10bn for Rhythm Pharmaceuticals in October, reportedly through its rare-disease unit Alexion. The per-share figure differs between the two reports: $124 (WSJ) and up to $134 including milestones (Reuters). AstraZeneca declined to comment and Rhythm did not respond. Rhythm shares closed up 28% at $110.68, below both figures. We treat this as a rumour until a company statement.
THE THESIS IS UNCHANGED AND THE DATA SUPPORTS IT. The cycle is driven by patent expiry calendars and balance-sheet capacity, not by equity market direction. The XBI reached almost $170 in August and stood at $159.10 on 4 November. Public-company takeouts were thin in Q3, yet private-company deals filled the gap and the pace of buying did not slow.
KEY FIGURES SINCE 7 APRIL
- 46 deals, of which 34 carry a headline value of $1bn or more (values include milestones and CVRs).
- Five deals at $10bn or above: Recordati/CVC and GBL (about $12.4bn), Sun Pharma/Organon ($11.75bn EV), AbbVie/Apogee ($10.9bn), GSK/Nuvalent ($10.6bn) and Vertex/Crinetics ($10bn).
- Lilly signed 10 deals, including Kelonia (up to $7bn) and AtaiBeckley (up to $3.8bn including CVR).
- Year to date: $207.8bn across 76 deals on a broad definition that includes licensing-type biobucks and take-privates. This already exceeds our March forecast of $140-180bn.
- Private equity is now an active buyer (Recordati, Esperion, Theramex).
OUTCOMES SINCE THE APRIL NOTE
- Lilly completed the Centessa acquisition on 24 June.
- Travere received full FDA approval for Filspari in FSGS on 14 April.
- Abivax reported positive Phase 3 maintenance data on 30 June (shares +36%). No bid has been announced.
THE SETUP INTO YEAR-END. In our list, the last deal of $5bn or more is Curium/Lantheus on 3 August. The gap at the top end is now three months while the buyers' reasons have not changed. Commentators such as Adam May argue that the XBI masks the damage done to quality small and mid-cap biotechs, which are the natural targets. If so, targets are cheap for buyers who have to defend rising pharma valuations ahead of the cliff. The JPM Healthcare Conference in January is the natural stage for pharma to present its plans. A first $5bn+ takeout, such as the Rhythm report if it converts, would reset target valuations quickly.
RUMOUR BOARD. Rhythm (new), Abivax, Revolution Medicines and Nanobiotix are the names with a reported buyer, none confirmed. Viking, Structure, Celcuity, Travere, Inventiva and MapLight remain structural candidates with no bid reported.
Two caveats. Sources differ on the headline value of three deals (AtaiBeckley, Actio, ITM), and the note shows the maximum announced. The GSK/Nuvalent premium of 40% comes from secondary sources.
The point remains the same: weaker equity prices lower the reference for the next bid, not its likelihood.
Best regards,
Laurent Chekroun
+41 79 350 71 09