TOKYO -- Speculation is swirling over SoftBank's next big takeover target, after the Japanese mobile carrier last month dropped a bid to acquire T-Mobile US.
On the subject of alternatives, Son said he is always thinking about his options.
Some observers believe the tycoon has already set his sights elsewhere. "SoftBank receives a lot of acquisition proposals from around the world," said Satoru Kikuchi, an analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities. "Son might have terminated negotiations with T-Mobile because he had found another attractive possibility."
The Vodafone connection
Europe is home to a number of major mobile communications companies, among them Deutsche Telekom, T-Mobile's German parent, Vodafone of the U.K. and Telefonica of Spain.
Some say Son has a particular affinity for Vodafone, stemming from SoftBank's takeover of the British company's Japanese business in spring 2006. Son shuttled back and forth between Japan and the U.K. to quickly close the deal, which was valued at 1.75 trillion yen (about $15 billion at the time).
"I wouldn't be surprised if our CEO acquired Vodafone, since we are no strangers to each other," one SoftBank executive said.
The potential for a shakeout in the European communications industry seems to lend credence to the idea.
When SoftBank and Vodafone struck their deal over the Japanese unit, the British company had a market value of $134 billion -- larger than any other global communications enterprise. But Vodafone's European operations subsequently lost steam, eroding the market value by roughly 30%.
Many European countries have four or more players in their domestic mobile markets. Tough price competition has worn them out, hindering investments in high-speed communications services like LTE, or long-term evolution -- a technological standard widespread in Japan.
The European Commission, the executive arm of the European Union, in late May gave Hong Kong conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa the green light to buy Telefonica's Irish mobile business. Carriers' deteriorating competitiveness could prompt authorities to be more welcoming to other acquisitive foreign companies.
Still, going after Vodafone would be ambitious to say the least. "The total acquisition price of Vodafone would be at least $100 billion," one analyst said.
To put that in perspective, consider SoftBank's holdings in Alibaba Group, the massive Chinese e-commerce company. Alibaba's market value is expected to surpass $150 billion after its upcoming initial public offering, and SoftBank owns a roughly 34% stake.
Last autumn, there was talk that AT&T of the U.S. would take over Vodafone, but that soon dissipated.
It is possible that a company like SoftBank could seek to buy Vodafone on a country by country basis. The U.K. carrier does business in regions including India and Africa.
Another try for T-Mobile?
Another common view is that Son will make a second run at T-Mobile in the U.S. He is said to be determined to win in the American market, which he sees as the center of the world.
T-Mobile's fortunes might hold the key.
The company is winning customers by offering low fees and holding other sales promotions. These efforts are being fueled by a $4 billion breakup fee AT&T paid to T-Mobile three years ago.
AT&T had sought to acquire T-Mobile, only to retract the plan due to opposition from U.S. authorities.
The windfall helped T-Mobile rev up its sales engine. But many in the industry warn that the money will not last forever. If T-Mobile loses momentum, American officials may warm up to industry consolidation.
SoftBank is also expected to pursue companies that provide services and content for smartphones. Last fall, it bought Finnish online game developer Supercell.
One long-running rumor is that SoftBank wants to invest in Line, the Tokyo-based operator of the free calling and texting app of the same name. The app has nearly 500 million users worldwide.