--> TSLA +3.7% on Upgrade
* The race to capture the 10 trillion.
Which firms can capture the most miles and at what price? Today, nearly 100% of these miles are delivered by companies practicing a 100-year-old business model of human-driven, privately owned, internal-combustion vehicles. This is fundamentally changing. In fact, the shared mobility model, i.e., shared transport empowered by smart technology, is significantly enhanced by autonomous cars, enabling higher vehicle utilization. Higher utilization overcomes the poor payback economics of electric vehicles (EVs). Reinforcing this is our view that EVs should work better in an autonomous, shared model.
* 'Introducing' Tesla Mobility, an app-based, on-demand mobility service.
Given the pace of technological development both within Tesla and at rival technology and mobility companies, we would be surprised if Tesla did not share formalized business plans on shared mobility within the next 12 to 18 months. This could potentially be followed by commercial introduction in 2018, shortly after the launch of the Model 3, which we think could form the backbone of a possible Tesla Mobility 1.0 urban transport PODS (Position on Demand Service) in 2018. We view this business opportunity as potentially additive to Tesla's existing model of selling human-driven cars to private owners and see potential for this model to conceivably more than triple the
company's potential revenues by 2029. That is, selling miles in addition to selling cars.