We believe the share price will fall relative to the industry over the next 60 days. The stock has rallied over 20% from the lows of the last three weeks as sentiment has improved on commodity exposed companies, however, we expect to see negative earnings revisions as revenue expectations are tempered, hampering further outperformance from here. We estimate that there is about a 70% to 80% (or "very likely") probability for the scenario. Estimated probabilities are illustrative and assigned subjectively based on our assessment of the likelihood of the scenario.