The global recovery is likely to gain more momentum in 2017 on the back of faster US growth, stable DM growth and rebounding EM momentum. While growth becomes more balanced, material risks emanate from late-cycle fiscal stimulus, faster Fed rate hikes and a broad globalisation backlash.
Bull-bear scenarios – mapping out higher risks, fatter tails: The 2017 outlook is subject to material uncertainty, not least due to a new US administration taking office, key ballots in Europe and the formal start of Brexit. The fatter tails of the distribution of macro outcomes will make for an interesting and intense macro debate. More than
ever, we will rely on our bull-bear scenarios.