The agreement should be completed quickly.
It will not be made public immediately, allowing the bank to organize.
Negotiation between BNP Paribas and the U.S. authorities has accelerated in recent days, to the point that the main principles of an agreement would be in the process of being calibrated. This "settlement" could be completed quickly. Although his tone must have been very hard for the bank, it would allow him to avoid a trial. Asked yesterday on the subject "Grand Rendez-Vous Europe 1 -" The World "- iTV", the Finance Minister Michel Sapin, is confident: "We have made progress towards more equitable and sanctions that Oberent not too strong future. "The bank is accused of violating the U.S. economic embargo on Sudan, Iran and Cuba, conducting operations in these countries in dollars. If the exact terms of the arrangement remain to be established, BNP Paribas must expect three types of unprecedented sanctions.
First, the bank will pay a fine that could settle in total between 8 and 10 billion. The U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) began his trading $ 16 billion and, according to our information, the French bank would initially make a proposal, against a little less than $ 5 billion. To date, the bank has set aside in its accounts of $ 1.1 billion.
Second sanction: the temporary suspension of the authorization to offset dollar transactions on behalf of clients to and from the United States. The scope of this restriction and its duration are not yet arrested. Depending on where the cursor will be placed, the consequences will be very different. The Bank of France said that such a provision could be systemically important. Some French bankers are measured. The CEO of Société Générale, Frédéric Oudéa, said Wednesday that the legal dispute raised by the BNP Paribas USA systemic dimension should not be "exaggerated". But the bank, fifth world player of "clearing" dollar trading volume to pass through one or more intermediaries is as well generate some risk for the banking system. The implementation of this measure is also so complex that it would require, according to an expert, a period of implementation. That the U.S. authorities would be prepared to give the bank, according to our information.
Admission of guilt
Finally, the third component penalties regarding the obligation for French bank "to plead guilty." The group has put all his energy to escape the admission of guilt by the parent company or even its Swiss subsidiary, responsible for most of the operations considered fraudulent. The guilty plea can indeed cause a withdrawal of banking license by the local regulators in countries where BNP Paribas operates. It could also push some customers, especially Americans, to no longer work with the French bank. However, the bank should not be able to escape.
Even if it is signed soon, the agreement will not be made public immediately. In the best case, it should not be revealed until the beginning of July. "For Credit Suisse, there were three weeks between the signature and the announcement of the guilty plea," said an informed source . This period should allow BNP Paribas to develop a plan B for the compensation of its dollar transactions and contact the various national regulators concerned to ensure that they do not call into question its license. Assurance that Credit Suisse had obtained in the intervening period from the Fed, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.