La Lettre – Abivax takeover context (summary)
After acquiring the US biotech Ventyx Biosciences on 7 January for $1.2bn, Eli Lilly is still considering a takeover of the French biotech Abivax, a competitor in inflammatory diseases. Ventyx’s clinical programs are significantly less advanced than Abivax’s.
According to La Lettre, Eli Lilly is refining a potential takeover offer and could be prepared to pay up to €15bn for Abivax — almost double its market capitalisation, which stood at around €7.8bn on Euronext Paris at the time.
At this stage, no formal offer has been submitted to Abivax’s board, led by Marc de Garidel. Eli Lilly is awaiting guidance from Bercy (the French Ministry of Finance) on whether the transaction would fall under France’s foreign investment control (FDI) regime. The French Treasury, under Bertrand Dumont, is assessing whether Abivax qualifies for review under these rules.
Eli Lilly is not the only interested party. Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca are also reported to be monitoring the situation closely.
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Strategic asset
Interest from major pharma groups has driven Abivax’s share price sharply higher. The stock ended 2025 up more than 1,600%, with a strong acceleration after positive Phase 3 results for obefazimod, its lead drug targeting chronic inflammatory bowel diseases.
The haemorrhagic colitis market is viewed as highly attractive. Global sales for treatments in this area are expected to reach $21.2bn annually by 2032, up from $9.2bn in 2025. Abivax aims to begin commercialisation in 2027.
With takeover speculation intensifying, attention is now focused on the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference (12–15 January, San Francisco) — traditionally a key venue for M&A announcements. David Ricks, CEO of Eli Lilly, is expected to attend on 13 January, alongside executives from Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca.
Analysts increasingly view Abivax as a takeover target. On CNBC, Stifel analyst Damien Choplain said the company “ticks all the boxes” for a strategic acquisition. Contacted by La Lettre, neither Eli Lilly nor Abivax commented.