Global oil supply
Don’t forget decline rates
*We revisit our work on oil production decline rates and their implications for the global oil supply outlook
*Declines haven’t gone away – lower rates in the North Sea are the exception, not the rule
*Conventional non-OPEC supply (ex US shale) is set to fall after 2019, adding to an increasingly tight global market
--> Decline rates and oil supply
* We revisit our work from 2016 on oil production decline rates and their implications for the oil supply outlook. The decline issue is often overshadowed by US shale, OPEC and Iran
* Lack of investment has led to higher decline rates in 2016-17, but production losses appear to have slowed so far in 2018
* Non-OPEC supply ex US shale likely to decline from 2020 to 2025
--> or ~50% of world liquids production is already in decline.