How Iran Is Trying to Punish Jordan for Helping Israel
After Jordan helped thwart Iran's attack, Tehran warned Amman would be its next 'target' should it aid Israel again. Meanwhile, Iran is using proxies and propaganda to cast Abdullah II as a 'sellout' to the Palestinian cause, amid already high tensions in Jordan over Gaza
Jordan earned the gratitude of Israel and the United States for intercepting Iranian projectiles headed toward the Jewish state on the night of April 13, but Amman is now facing explicit threats from Tehran.
Following the interception, Fars News Agency, linked to Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), announced, "Our armed forces are closely monitoring Jordan's movements during the operation to discipline the Zionist entity. If Jordan participates in any potential actions, it will be the next target."
After Jordanian forces intercepted Iran's drones, the Hashemite monarch, Abdullah II, sought to frame the operation as completely unrelated to protecting Israel. "Jordan's security and sovereignty is above everything, and Jordan will not be a battlefield for any party, and the protection of our civilians comes before anything," he stated.
Tehran's threat is as unprecedented as Jordan's actions, but it puts Amman on notice of overt Iranian retaliation. However, Iran is likelier to employ less visible means of intimidation. As the Hashemite kingdom faces a domestic upheaval because of the war in Gaza, Tehran has stoked this unrest through both propaganda and proxy forces, including increasing trafficking of weapons and narcotics.
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Making Jordan especially enticing for Iranian intervention, a foothold in Jordan replicating Tehran's model in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon could potentially serve as a direct gateway to Israel, in turn increasing pressure not only on the Israelis and the region, but also the international community.
Demonstrators wave flags and hold signs during a protest in support of Palestinians in Gaza, in Amman, Jordan on Friday.Credit: Alaa Al Sukhni/ REUTERS
Iran strategically uses sectarian influence in regions with significant Shiite populations to establish such proxy footholds. Jordan, however, lacks a substantial Shiite community. However, approximately 55 to 70 percent of Jordan's population is Palestinian. Since October 7, daily protests have unsuccessfully called on Jordan's king to annul the country's 1994 peace treaty with Israel.
In a bid to defuse public anger, high ranking Jordanian officials try to walk a fine line by being relentlessly critical of Israel, while not undermining the treaty. But tensions are high. In late March, demonstrators attempting to breach the Israeli embassy's security perimeter, physically and verbally attacking Jordanian police.
This animosity has offered Iran an alternative to the sectarian route to infiltrate the country, by positioning itself as the primary defender and champion of the Palestinians while casting the Hashemite monarchy as selling out their cause to Israel. This stance simultaneously bolsters Iran's regional influence and undermines the Jordanian stability.
After the April 13 attack, for example, criticism of the Jordanian monarchy – much of it seemingly originating from Tehran and its proxies, particularly in Lebanon and Iraq – spread on social media. Taunting images circulated depicting the king wearing an Israeli military uniform, labeling him "Abd Bin Shalom" — suggesting his subservience to Israel. Iraqi and Lebanese accounts, which were busy promoting the #Cancel_Jordan hashtag, also similarly spread hashtags like #Jordan_is_a_base_for_the_US_Britain_France_and_Israel.
Elements sympathetic to Iran like the Islamic Action Front — the Jordanian political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood — have exploited these attacks seeking to undermine the monarchy's pro-Palestine bona fides to turn these protests into rallies explicitly supporting Tehran's proxy Hamas. Each day, chants praising Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif reverberate through Amman's streets.
Signs indicate Iran is working to amplify this otherwise organic unrest. During the first weeks of the war, Iran activated its proxies in Iraq to disrupt oil supplies to Jordan. The effort lasted two days but signaled to Amman that Tehran would exact a price if the kingdom chose the wrong side.
Iranian proxies have been prodding Jordanians to use their country as a base for attacks against Israel – Qatar-based Hamas officials did so in November, while last month Iraq-based Kataib Hezbollah threatened to arm 12,000 Jordanians – and a New York Times investigative report discovered that Iranian-affiliated groups were using Jordan as a conduit to move weapons from Syria and Iraq into the West Bank.
Objects are seen in the sky over Amman after Iran launched drones towards Israel, in Amman, Jordan April 14 in this screen grab obtained from a social media video.Credit: VIDEO OBTAINED BY REUTERS/ REUTERS
More recently, Iran is turning these weapons against Jordan itself. In March, Jordanian authorities also arrested a Hamas-backed cell, comprised of Palestinian Jordanians, that was smuggling Iranian-supplied weapons for domestic use.
Syrian regime elements, working with Iranian proxies, have also sharply increased the ongoing drug smuggling activities into Jordan, especially the highly-addictive amphetamine Captagon – as part of Tehran's broader pressure campaign on Jordan. Its overlap with heightened Iranian-backed militia activities in Jordan suggests a coordinated effort to complicate the kingdom's internal security challenges since, in the past, this traffic led to bloody shootouts on the Jordanian-Syrian border.
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In January, the Jordanian air force launched strikes inside Syria targeting suspected traffickers and drug warehouses.
Jordan's actions on April 13 demonstrate that it remains a pillar of regional stability and a critical ally of the United States, which accordingly provides Amman with more than $1 billion of aid annually, including military assistance. It also proves the kingdom's military cooperation and coordination with Israel – foundational component of their relationship — remains fully intact despite both the negative rhetoric emanating from Amman since October 7 and domestic pressure to break these ties.
Following the Iranian drones' interception, critics asked whether Jordan would have prevented a potential Israeli retaliatory strike against Iran from traversing Jordanian airspace. This scenario which remains hypothetical, highlights the tight-rope Jordan is walking between preserving its domestic stability and honoring the foreign commitments which are critical to its durability. Meanwhile, Iran is seeking to amplify these growing tensions to the detriment of not only Amman, but its international partners as well.
Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies, focusing on Middle East affairs, specifically the Levant, Iraq, and Iranian intervention in Arab affairs, as well as U.S. foreign policy toward the region. @AhmadA_Sharawi