Goldman sees scope for EU200b-EU260b of LTRO-3 take-up (50%-65% ratio; allocations: 2H14), based on full (90%) take-up in periphery and 25%-50% take-up in core.
- For LTRO-4 (allocations: 2015-16), estimates higher, wider range of EU520b-EU650b
- Base case est. of total TLTRO take-up therefore EU720b-EU910b
- Says crucial that “lending benchmarks” are clarified further
- Says valuation and gearing to bank union process support CL Buys on BBVA, Intesa, ING