4Q15: Oil weak, refining margins lower; focus on costs and cash
Our top picks remain Total (CL-Buy) and ENI (Buy), for which we see attractive volume and cash flow growth, combined with restructuring at ENI and further cost cutting potential at Total. We remain more negative on Statoil (CL-Sell) owing to its high exposure to oil prices/European gas prices and high leverage, which leaves the dividend at risk, in our view. We are also Sell-rated on OMV after recent strong outperformance, as we see risks around downstream earnings, high leverage and a relatively high decline upstream portfolio.