Hedge funds maintain conviction in outperforming growth stock favorites
The average equity long/short hedge fund has posted a 10% YTD return, the strongest since 2013. Fund performance has been lifted by sector (Information Technology) and factor (growth, momentum, large-cap) exposures. Our Hedge Fund
VIP list of the most popular long positions, whose top five stocks are FB, AMZN, BABA, GOOGL, and MSFT, has outperformed the S&P 500 by 770 bp YTD (25% vs. 17%). In this report we analyze the holdings of 804 hedge funds with $2.1 trillion of gross equity positions ($1.4 trillion long and $704 billion short) at the start of 4Q.
--> 5 key points from the Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund Trend Monitor
This Hedge Fund Trend Monitor analyzes 804 hedge funds with $2.1 trillion of gross equity positions ($1.4 trillion long and $704 billion short). Our analysis of positions at the start of 4Q 2017 is based on 13-F filings as of November 14, 2017.
1. PERFORMANCE: The average equity long/short hedge fund 1. has returned +10% YTD on the strength of the most popular long positions, high exposure to Information Technology, and atypical factor tilts toward large-caps and away from value stocks. This ranks as the strongest return since 2013 and compares with 17% for the S&P 500, 16% for the average large-cap core mutual fund, and 2% for macro hedge funds.
2. SECTORS: Information Technology remains the largest net sector exposure, accounting for 27% of fund portfolios. However, the 307 bp overweight tilt relative to the Russell 3000 is 100 bp smaller than at the start of 3Q. Materials represents the largest sector overweight. Financials is the largest underweight and a major source of disagreement with large-cap mutual funds, which are overweight the sector. Current overweights in Energy and Consumer Discretionary are nearly the smallest tilts in recent history, as is the underweight in Utilities.
3. LEVERAGE: Hedge funds increased net leverage in 3Q 2017 as the most popular positions continued to outperform a rising equity market. Short interest as a percent of S&P 500 market cap remained close to 2%, near the lowest level in five years.
4. VERY IMPORTANT POSITIONS: Our Hedge Fund VIP list (ticker: GSTHHVIP) of the most popular long positions has outperformed the S&P 500 by 770 bp YTD.
The VIP list contains the 50 stocks that appear most often among the top 10 holdings of fundamentally-driven hedge fund portfolios. The basket’s absolute and risk-adjusted YTD returns rank as the strongest since 2013. The list’s top 5 stocks are FB, AMZN, BABA, GOOGL, and MSFT. The basket has outperformed the S&P 500 in 65% of quarters since 2001, generating an average quarterly excess return of 62 bp. 10 new constituents entered the basket this quarter, compared with a quarterly average of 16 stocks since 2001: EQIX, GDDY, IAC, IQV, MGM, MPC, NRG, SBAC, TTWO, and XPO.
5. CROWDING AND TURNOVER: Hedge funds continue to demonstrate high conviction in their favorite positions. The typical hedge fund has 68% of its long equity assets in its top 10 positions, just below the record high of 69% in 1H 2016. Similarly, our crowding index increased but remains shy of its 2016 extremes. Quarterly turnover of the largest portfolio positions fell to new historical lows, at 13%, declining in all sectors but Health Care.