* capital shortfalls are most likely to be identified at BMPS (48%), Commerzbank (43%), BCP (34%), BAPO
(33%), Piraeus (33%), PMI (32%), Eurobank (30%), Raiffeisen (29%), Alpha Bank (28%) and POP (28%).
*Key changes to market expectations:
- Compared with our previous survey (October 14,
2013), we note:
(1) Credibility has risen: 89% of investors expect
the AQR/test to be credible (previously 70%).
(2) A €23 bn increase to recap expectations. Our
previous survey called for €75 bn of cap hikes.
With €47 bn raised since, a residual of €28 bn
remains. The current expectation (€51 bn)
therefore implies a c.€23 bn increase to aggregate
recap expectations.
(3) Among the ten banks perceived as most
likely to fail, seven remain the same – despite six
of them having raised capital already. Unicredit is
the sole bank to have substantially improved
investor perceptions without having raised capital.
(4) Market perceptions of the likelihood of
failing have increased most for Greek, CEE and
Austrian banks. Conversely, perceptions have
improved the most for Spanish banks.
(5) The average expectation is for banks to
outperform (75%) the broader market, once the
results are announced.