FYI — BofA (Levingston / Preusser) out with an El Niño note today, recommending long NZD/AUD as agricultural terms-of-trade play.
Direction echoes the 16 May and 16 Aug field guides. Transmission map (Australian wheat, Argentine wheat, Brazilian corn/sugar, Asian sugar) is our § 04 / § 05.
What they add worth noting:
(1) NZD/AUD as the specific pair — sharper than our short AUD/USD (trade #5), isolates the ENSO signal by removing the USD leg. NZ dairy / meat exports are terms-of-trade beneficiaries; AU wheat / drought risk on the other side.
(2) Positioning angle — hedge fund NZD shorts at highest since 2006 (CFTC COT). Under-owned setup adds a squeeze catalyst on top of the fundamentals.
Slots in as trade #10 in the grid alongside the existing short AUD/USD. Framework unchanged.
LC
Linl to BofA comment : {NSN TJZ0NRT96OSI <GO>}