Follow-Up
Still believe in this trade, RCO weak on -ve article in FT, stock is down on the day, LVMH better.
I will wait to add some more
----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 17 2014 10:57:05
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 17 2014 10:57:05
{RCO FP Equity MC FP Equity GRT D}* Remy Cointreau (RCO FP) - Buy- Q4 Sales a 3% miss, Cognac still weak, we could see some more dwg to consensus EPS, but pfr story is not there anymore.- Valuation still not cheap regarding the Cognac business but not too far from historical premium the stock is trading with the sector- RCO is highly correlated to Luxury trend in China and most of dwg has been done- Few weeks ago M&A rumors re-surface with a blog mentionning Brown& Forman was looking to the company, this blog was mentioning a €85/share minimum price on any deal to get the family to table.- 55/56 appears to be a strong support.* LVMH (MC FP) - Sell- Numbers were published on the 9th of April, the analysis fo numbers show us that we continue to see a down trend in volume that has been so far compensated by price increase, main point of the strategy remained of potential of price increase and maintain margin.- Stock is trading not far from historical highs (3.5%) and even if we can test this level I don't expect a major break upBuy Remy Cointreau Sell LVMH - expecting MC to not really move and RCO to go back to the 70's levelsLaurent