Why Emmanuel Macron is taking a tough line on Brexit
French president is alarmed at no-deal scenario and deferring difficult issues
Last week’s acrimonious Salzburg summit made it seem to some that the biggest obstacle to a Brexit deal is Emmanuel Macron.
The French president’s blunt criticism of Theresa May’s plans — and his broadside at the “liars” who told British voters it would be easy to leave the bloc — only reinforced the longstanding British impression that Paris is to blame for the UK’s problems with the EU.
But the Elysée sees things very differently. It argues that Salzburg was a reality check for Mrs May, one that was necessary to prevent a close ally from crashing out of the bloc on the 29th of March next year.
Paris has become increasingly frustrated at the slow pace of the negotiations and the risk of a chaotic exit. In particular, French diplomats complain about the UK prime minister’s refusal to take the EU’s “red lines” into account.
Mrs May, who needs to win support from both the hard Brexit and pro-EU wings of her warring Conservative party, wants to keep the UK signed up to the EU’s rule book for goods, but not for services or people.
In response, the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier has repeatedly warned that this so-called “Chequers” plan poses an existential threat to the single market. Bruno Le Maire, France’s finance minister, says it will amount to “the end of Europe”.
In August, over dinner at the presidential residence of Brégançon on the Riviera, Mr Macron reiterated to Mrs May that the EU would not allow the UK to cherry-pick the “four freedoms” — free movement of goods, services, capital and persons — that form the pillars of the single market, because it would give an incentive to other members to do the same.
French diplomats add that it was vital to make absolutely clear at Salzburg that Chequers was not an option before Mrs May attended the Conservative party conference next month.
They argue that allowing Mrs May to return to the negotiating table with her party’s backing for Chequers only a few months before Brexit could have increased the likelihood of an impasse or an ambiguous agreement that deferred painful discussions into the transition period.
Neither outcome is acceptable for Paris. With its large expatriate community in London and northern ports that heavily rely on trade with the UK, France has much to lose economically in case of a “no-deal” scenario. Similarly, it fiercely opposes a “fudge” or a “blind Brexit”.
Populists such as the far-right politician Marine Le Pen would seize on a vague deal to rally support for their Eurosceptic ideas in EU elections in May, undermining Mr Macron’s political standing and his push to reform the EU.
“Brexit cannot be painless, we can’t reward the one who is leaving,” a French aide remarked.
That is why the French president was irked when before the Salzburg gathering even started, Donald Tusk, EU council president, announced plans for a special Brexit summit in November to finalise a deal. EU leaders are already scheduled to discuss the issue at another meeting next month.
A Paris official said Mr Tusk’s move was “absurd tactics”. “If we don’t have a deal in October, it’s getting very dangerous,” a French aide added. Other EU officials are more wary of the risk of demanding a breakthrough in the next few weeks.
But Mr Macron’s public activism does not mean the other EU leaders are any softer or more sympathetic to Mrs May’s difficulties. In Salzburg, Angela Merkel used more diplomatic wording than her French counterpart.
But, speaking to German business leaders on Tuesday, she requested a Brexit deal lay out a clear framework for the UK’s future relationship with the EU. Paris also relies on the firm albeit discreet support of the bloc’s free-trade minded members, including Dutch premier Mark Rutte.
The Dutch, like the Scandinavian countries, are Britain’s traditional allies in the bloc. But they will never approve a deal giving UK companies a competitive edge in the single market. That is Mrs May’s problem: it is not just the UK that has red lines. On the most fundamental issues, the EU shows no sign of retreat.