Why Belgium’s far right is set to win the election — but not independence
Scheming for secession
In Belgium’s upcoming elections, a party that wants to split up the country is expected to become the biggest winner. But the road to Flemish independence is still a long way off, writes Laura Dubois.
Context: On June 9, Belgians elect their federal and regional governments. As the country is divided into Dutch-speaking Flanders and French-speaking Wallonia, plus the bilingual capital Brussels, citizens cast votes for regional parties, who then have to form a federal coalition. Often, chaos and delays ensue.
For the first time, the Flemish far-right Vlaams Belang is expected to become the largest party with 26 of 150 seats in the federal parliament, and is polling first at around 26 per cent in Flanders.
“If we have a democratic majority, we will strive for independence,” VB party leader Tom Van Grieken told the FT.
Van Grieken explains that “we do not feel represented in the Belgian country,” complaining that the wealthy Flanders has to foot the bill for less affluent Wallonia.
His aim is to negotiate with Wallonia after the elections and, if they refuse, simply go it alone: “We will have a declaration of independence.”
But to push ahead with this plan, Vlaams Belang will need the support of nationalist N-VA, which governs the region and is projected to become the second-largest force in Flanders — and they don’t seem inclined.
“We are trying to offer a realistic path towards a better model of political representation for the Flemish people,” N-VA chief Bart De Wever said, explaining that this would entail more autonomous governance for both regions. All-out secession would be “a chaotic strategy which would ultimately weaken the voice for more Flemish autonomy”, De Wever said.
Other parties also believe that Vlaams Belang’s strategy won’t work. This is because it remains unclear what will happen to Brussels, which Vlaams Belang sees as the capital of its future country, or to membership of the EU — a crucial question for the city that hosts its institutions.
“I don’t think it will happen because they have no solution,” says Peter Mertens, general secretary of the far-left Workers’ party. “They want to create a political standstill after the elections, to have no government after the elections.”
Researchers also believe that few people, including Vlaams Belang voters, support independence. “Only a very, very small minority of Belgians, also on the Flemish side, are in favour of splitting up the country,” says Didier Caluwaerts of the Free University Brussels (VUB).
“It’s going to be difficult making policies,” Caluwaerts predicts of the period after the elections. “But the country splitting up, that’s not immediately going to happen.”