Organisations, especially those that are doing well, can easily get stuck on narrow views of the future and their own role within it. It can be useful and creative in those circumstances to give people the opportunity to think more widely. One method that I have seen used to great effect is to ask people to imagine the world in 10 years’ time and suggest what might have changed, particularly against the expectations of the conventional wisdom. The process can provide a useful counterweight to long-term forecasts, which tend to do no more than roll forward recent history.
In that spirit, and for the holidays, here are a few stories on the energy sector from the FT in 2025. These are not forecasts — just possibilities. Readers would be welcome to suggest additions to the list.
1. In Moscow, ShellGaz — the world’s largest energy company as measured by its listing on the FTNikkei 250 — announces that it is proceeding with Eaststream3, the latest in a series of export projects from eastern Siberia. Eaststream3 will take gas by pipeline to the rapidly growing cities of northern India. ShellGaz was formed in 2017 through the merger of Royal Dutch Shell and Gazprom and represented the first fruit of the reset of European-Russian relations after the agreed federalisation of Ukraine.
2. In the UK, Prime Minister Amber Rudd inaugurates the country’s first new nuclear power station for 50 years at Wylfa in North Wales. In her speech, she expresses optimism that work on the long-promised Hinkley Point nuclear station, which has been held up by technical and financial problems, will start by the end of the year.
3. Newly published statistics confirm that Germany is now Europe’s biggest energy exporter, providing wind and solar-generated electricity to the countries of central and eastern Europe. As part of the 2018 plan for further European integration through the creation of a common energy policy this power is supplied at marginal cost. The second-largest energy exporter in Europe is Scotland, which is now the dominant supplier of electricity to the rest of the UK using large-scale onshore wind generated in the Highlands. Resentment at the resulting high energy costs being paid in England (which has an opt out from the Energy Union) is generating pressure for independence from Scotland. As a result of the increased production from renewables, Europe’s degree of dependence on energy imports is falling — a shift that is contributing to the continued weakness of global fossil fuel prices
4. Oil prices rise to almost $75 a barrel (at 2025 prices) as a result of continuing instability in Nigeria and Venezuela. Prices were stabilised in 2016 by the Saudi decision to join Abu Dhabi and Kuwait in cutting production by 2.5m barrels a day. The increase in prices has, however, been limited because expansion of supply capacity in Canada, Russia, Iran and Brazil has outstripped demand. Global oil demand, having peaked in 2019, is now stable at about 97mbd, with increased Asian consumption offset by continuing efficiency gains in Europe and the US.
5. In Chicago, the leading contender for the Democratic party’s nomination for the 2028 presidential election commits herself to an early decision on the fate of the Keystone pipeline. Would-be President (Chelsea) Clinton says her priority will be North American energy independence, based on imports from Mexico and Canada combined with increased ethanol production from grain grown in Iowa.
6. Coal prices touch a 40-year low as coal is forced out of the European and US markets by environmental regulations. In the absence of a global carbon price, however, coal remains the fuel of choice (or necessity) for most of the growing population of India and many other parts of the developing world, having overtaken oil as the largest single source of global energy supply in 2020.
7. Climate change remains a serious and unresolved issue because of the continued use of coal but the focus of attention has shifted to the impact of climate volatility and extreme weather conditions. Insurance premiums for low-lying areas that could be hit by flooding have tripled. In 2025, Singapore announces that it will proceed with the construction of the 40km Lee Kuan Yew sea wall surrounding the island, which can be raised and lowered according to the level of risk.
8. In Beijing, scientists announce the success of a collaborative energy storage project between the universities of Cambridge and Tsinghua to develop new graphene-based materials that can be incorporated into both vehicles and buildings and which can produce efficiency gains of up to 50 per cent.
9. The world second-largest energy company, Amazon Power, continues to expand its role in the electricity sector having displaced or absorbed many traditional utilities. Amazon acts as an aggregator rather than a power producer and its dominant role in the market has drawn criticism both from producers who find their margins squeezed to minimal levels and from civil liberty campaigners who dislike the presence in homes, offices and factories of Amazon boxes which monitor and manage energy usage on all devices. Worldwide, more than 1bn boxes are now in operation producing, according to the company, a 15 per cent reduction in electricity costs for consumers.
10. In Weekend FT Lucy Kellaway has lunch with the first woman appointed as chief executive of a major international energy company.
OK — whatever you think of the other scenarios, I accept that this last one is the most far fetched.