Wall Street bets Tesla’s 2025 sales will miss Elon Musk’s target
Electric-car maker expected to take a hit from Trump’s bid to dismantle Biden-era climate initiative
Wall Street banks expect Tesla’s vehicle sales to grow much more slowly this year than co-founder Elon Musk has forecast, as Donald Trump seeks to dismantle Biden-era climate policies that favour electric vehicles.
Tesla is poised to sell 2.07mn vehicles this year, up 16 per cent on 2024, according to analyst forecasts compiled by FactSet. That would be a rebound from last year, when the group reported its first drop since 2011, but it is well below the 20 to 30 per cent Musk projected in October and below the previous two years’ annual growth rate of about 40 per cent.
The figures underscore the challenge Tesla faces from Trump’s pledge to roll back policies that have boosted US EV sales. Last week an executive order said the White House would consider “the elimination of unfair subsidies and other ill-conceived government-imposed market distortions”.
Trump 2.0 opposition to EV incentives has hit 2025 volume expectations,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas.
Tesla, which reports fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday, would be hit particularly hard if Trump scrapped a $7,500 tax credit for EV buyers. Barclays analyst Dan Levy estimated that about two-thirds of Tesla’s US sales benefit from the credits.
The changes to EV subsidies are likely to take effect from 2026; some analysts said that Tesla’s sales figures may be boosted by buyers rushing to complete sales before then. Levy predicted “a significant EV pre-buy” in the second half of 2025 before volumes drop the following year; other analysts thought that pre-buys were already boosting Tesla’s sales.
Some analysts questioned how big the pre-buy would be; BNP Paribas Exane estimates volume growth this year could be as low as 12 per cent.
Tesla investors are also concerned about wider “pressures on the EV market, China competition [and] decelerating Cybertruck volumes”, said Jonas.
Overall US EV sales growth slowed last year due to high pricing and lack of new models; the EV market share was 8 per cent, compared with 7.6 per cent in 2023.