US sidelines Europe and turns to Gulf to drive Iran nuclear talks
Saudi Arabia and UAE have become crucial intermediaries in effort to resolve stand-off after opposing landmark 2015 deal
Gulf states have eclipsed Europe as central players in the US’s efforts to secure a new nuclear deal with Iran, a stark reversal of roles a decade after they were sidelined and frustrated by an earlier landmark agreement with Tehran.
In part, the shift underscores how US President Donald Trump’s pursuit of his America First policy, and marginalising of traditional European allies, has created space for middle powers in the Gulf and elsewhere to try and influence America’s foreign policy.
While the Obama administration engaged in a multilateral process involving the UK, Germany, France, Russia and China for the 2015 agreement, known by its acronym the JCPOA, Trump is in effect pushing for a bilateral agreement with the Islamic republic, seeking a quick deal and threatening military action if diplomacy fails.
But the change also reflects a marked détente between the Gulf’s powerhouses — Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — and Iran.
The Sunni states, who have for decades viewed the predominantly Shia republic as a hostile and destabilising rival, have sought to de-escalate tensions with Tehran and avoid another eruption of conflict in the Middle East.
As a consequence, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have gone from being among the loudest cheerleaders of Trump’s decision to abandon the JCPOA in 2018 and impose “maximum pressure” on Iran to publicly backing diplomatic efforts to resolve the nuclear stand-off between Tehran and the west.
It means the Gulf states are leveraging their ties with Trump to act as important counterweights to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is lobbying for military action.
Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at Crisis Group, said the Gulf’s buy-in was a “game changer” because of their influence in Washington.
“In his first term, Trump had Netanyahu and MBS [Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman] advising against a deal with Iran,” Vaez said. “Now he has Saudi Arabia urging him to strike a deal with Iran, and MBS is more influential than Netanyahu, so it’s very important.”
The indirect talks between the Trump administration and Iran have been facilitated by Oman, which has long maintained good relations with Tehran and sought to position itself as a neutral power in the Middle East. Muscat hosted secret US-Iran talks between Tehran and the Obama administration in early 2013 before the negotiations became public and moved to Geneva and Vienna.
This time, Oman’s efforts are being supported by Qatar, a small nation that hosts Washington’s biggest military base in the region and retains strong ties with Iran.
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi met Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani in the days leading up to Trump’s trip to the Gulf last month.
Doha, often used as a conduit for messages between Washington and Tehran, then hosted Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian shortly after the US president left.
Crucially, Saudi Arabia — which restored relations with Iran in 2023 after a six-year hiatus — has added its weight to the Gulf’s push for peace.
In April, Prince Mohammed dispatched his brother and defence minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman, to Iran for talks with senior officials, including supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The highest ranking Saudi royal visit to the republic in decades, it was intended to underline Riyadh’s support for a deal between Iran and the US.
A Saudi official said the message to Iran’s leaders was that the kingdom wanted to maintain dialogue with the republic and would not be part of any hostile action. It also urged Tehran to reach an agreement with Trump, the official added.
The Gulf’s fear is that if diplomacy fails and the US and Israel launch strikes against Iran, it would trigger a war in which Tehran could retaliate by attacking oil and other infrastructure across the region, either directly or through proxies — as happened in 2019.
“We don’t want a misunderstanding to start a war between Iran and the US,” the Saudi official said.
The UAE, which Trump chose as a courier to send a letter to Khamenei this year, has made similar comments.
After Araghchi met his Emirati counterpart Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed last month, the UAE said the pair discussed the importance of the nuclear negotiations “in consolidating the foundations of security and stability in the region”.
It is a marked contrast to Saudi and Emirati leaders’ frustrations with former president Barack Obama, who infuriated them by neither engaging more when negotiating the JCPOA, nor addressing their concerns about Iran’s missile programme and support for regional militants.
Iran, meanwhile, wants the Gulf states to be “integral to the negotiating process, to ensure they are not spoilers and because they are going to be the underwriters of this deal economically, if not politically,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East programme at Chatham House.
The Gulf states could also have a role if the talks succeed as the discussions include the possibility of setting up a consortium, which would involve the US and regional states, to develop facilities for low-level uranium enrichment.
The idea is viewed as a potential compromise to bridge the gap between Iran’s insistence that it has that right to enrich uranium, and Trump’s public demand Tehran dismantle its programme.
“The consortium could create a situation where you can bind regional countries together in a regional venture in a way that has no precedent,” said Vaez.
The UAE, for example, already has a nuclear power plant but agreed with the US to forgo domestic enrichment, while Saudi Arabia wants to develop its own programme and enrich uranium domestically.
In contrast to Gulf states, European governments integral to the JCPOA negotiations appear marginalised.
European officials have held several rounds of lower level talks with Iranian counterparts since September, but European diplomats acknowledged their involvement in US-Iran negotiations was limited.
Tensions have for several years also been on the rise between European states and Iran.
Tehran blames the Europeans, who opposed Trump’s decision to abandon the deal, for not doing more to ensure the republic received the economic benefits of the JCPOA after the US withdrew from the accord.
The Europeans, meanwhile, are increasingly worried about Iran’s aggressive nuclear advances and have threatened to trigger a so-called snapback process this year that would reimpose UN sanctions if Iran’s activities are not reined in.
A western diplomat in Tehran warned that if the talks fail, Trump may use them as a “scapegoat” and pressure them to trigger the snapback mechanism.
“The Europeans are very marginalised,” said Vakil. “This is exactly where they don’t want to be, they are not in the room, not discussing their issues and backed into a corner over snapback. It’s the worst possible scenario for them.”