US-Israeli war on Iran threatens Syria
Country faces assaults from militias in Iraq, Hizbollah and Israel’s military as its fledgling government seeks to sit out conflict
Syria is facing cross-border attacks from Shia militia groups in Iraq and from Israel as it struggles to remain on the sidelines of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Damascus’s fragile government is seeking instead to position the country as an energy transit hub for nations affected by the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz as the US signalled the war, now in its fifth week, would run for weeks more.
Earlier this week Syria said it had intercepted a large-scale drone attack on former US bases near the Iraqi border, the latest assault by Shia militia groups. Last month Syrian troops came under artillery assault by the Hizbollah militant group in neighbouring Lebanon, which like the groups in Iraq joined the fray in support of Tehran last month.
Within Syria itself, a shadowy Shia militia group has taken credit for several attacks on US and Israeli assets over the past three weeks. The group was formed earlier this year, vowing to fight Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Sunni government.
“We had enough war,” the president, who seized power in 2024 after years of civil conflict, said at an event hosted by the Chatham House think-tank in London this week. “We are not ready for another war experience.”
Israel — which has been using positions it occupies in southern Syria to stage attacks on Lebanon — also launched a wave of air strikes on southern Syria last month following alleged clashes between government security forces and Druze militiamen, threatening to deepen domestic unrest. Israel said, as it has done with previous interventions in Syria, that it was coming to the defence of the Druze minority.
Damascus, meanwhile, has sent thousands of its troops to bolster its borders and limit the flow of weapons and fighters, defence officials have said.
Those movements have fuelled deep concerns in Lebanon and Iraq, where government officials and pro-Iran groups speculated that Syrian forces could launch cross-border incursions. Syrian officials and analysts say that worry is unfounded.
The US envoy to Syria denied a Reuters report last month that Washington was pressing Damascus to operations inside Lebanon to help disarm Hizbollah. But regional and western officials told the FT serious conversations about the possibility had taken place with US officials over a period of months, both before and during the war.
“Syria’s armed forces don’t have the capacity to do anything like this,” said Kheder Khaddour, a Syria analyst at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “They barely have enough forces to cover their own territory.”
Following 14 years of devastating civil war that placed Syria at the epicentre of the Levant’s instability, Damascus now finds its position inverted. Neighbouring countries are increasingly caught up in the fallout from the US-Israeli war against Iran, but Syria has remained relatively insulated from its effects, analysts said, as it tries to piece itself together under its new rulers.
“For over a decade, the country served as the central arena where regional and international rivalries played out. Today, by contrast, it has repositioned itself as a neutral actor,” wrote Haid Haid, Syria researcher at Chatham House.
That transition process since Sharaa took power in December 2024 has been marred by instability and sporadic violence. But he has worked to reposition Syria away from its former pariah status on the world stage.
Sharaa has deepened relationships with Arab nations — including Lebanon and Iraq, where residual tensions remain from his past ties to al-Qaeda — as well as with Washington and European states.
Asked whether Syria would remain neutral on the Iran conflict, he said this week: “We want Syria to have ideal relationships with the entire region, with Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and world powers like the UK, France, Germany and the US.
“I think that Syria is qualified to start a strategic relationship network.”
One country with which Damascus does not maintain formal diplomatic ties is Iran, an ally of former dictator Bashar al-Assad, whom Sharaa ousted in 2024.
“Unless Syria is targeted by any party, Syria will remain outside any conflict,” the Syrian president said, but he added: “We do not want Syria to be an arena of war. But unfortunately, today, things are not governed by wise minds. The situation is volatile and random.”
Sharaa has also sought opportunity in the chaos, positioning his country as a conduit for energy and telecommunications between Europe, the Gulf and Asia.
In Germany this week, Sharaa pitched his country and its land routes as a safe alternative to counteract disruptions to supply chains and energy flows from the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
“Syria can serve as a safe haven. It can ensure the security of supply chains through its strategic location, as well as energy supplies via the Mediterranean coast,” he told the heads of German companies in Berlin.
“Any disruption in the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz further underscores Syria’s potential role as a secure alternative route.”
It follows a yearlong effort to recruit significant investment in the energy sector in Syria, backed by Washington, in which Damascus secured billions of dollars in investment to help revive the ailing sector.
This week, Iraq began overland fuel exports using Syrian land routes, as the Strait’s shutdown strangles its exports. Baghdad said volumes would expand gradually. But they face constraints from poor infrastructure — which has been damaged by a decade of war and neglect — and security.
As Iraqi militias continue to attack and threaten Syria, there are concerns it could be drawn further into the conflict.
“How long can Syria stay neutral?” Khaddour said. “The longer this war goes on, the more this conflict expands, the greater the risk it could spill over into Syria.”