US green energy forecast cut by half under Trump despite global surge in solar and wind
Renewable power held back in world’s biggest economy while growing in India, the Middle East and Africa
The International Energy Agency has cut in half its forecast for renewable energy growth in the US this decade, even as green power surpassed coal globally in the first half of 2025 for the first time on record.
The global energy agency said last year it expected the US to add 500 gigawatts of new capacity — almost all solar and wind power — by 2030. But it now expects it to add 250GW.
The figures are the most comprehensive assessment yet of the effect the Trump administration is having on global efforts to shift towards greener energy to address climate change mainly caused by burning fossil fuels.
The IEA also upgraded its forecast for India’s renewable energy growth by 10 per cent, putting it on track to become the second-largest renewables growth market globally after China.
The forecast for green energy in the Middle East and north Africa was also upped by 23 per cent, helped by Saudi Arabia rolling out wind turbines and solar panels.
Almost 80 per cent of the global growth will come from solar power, the IEA added, propelled by lower costs and quicker permitting.
The IEA forecast comes as a report by energy think-tank Ember found that renewables generated more power than coal globally during the first half of 2025, for the first time on record.
Renewables supplied 5,072 terawatt-hours and coal supplied 4,896 terawatt-hours, the report said. Sonia Dunlop, chief executive of the Global Solar Council, said it was a “historic shift”.
But IEA’s slower than previous outlook in the US, and a tempering of the pace of growth expected in China, could not be entirely offset by the upgrades to its expectations for India, the Middle East and Africa.
It means the IEA has lowered it overall expectations for global renewables growth by about 5 per cent to 4,608GW by 2030 — still roughly equivalent capacity to that of China, the EU and Japan today.
One gigawatt can power hundreds of thousands of homes, depending on an array of weather and consumption differences.
Under the IEA’s forecasts, total global renewable capacity will reach 9,529GW in 2030, short of an ambitious 11,000GW target world leaders put in place at the UN COP28 climate summit in Dubai two years ago.
“This target can still be brought within reach if countries adopt enhanced policies to bridge gaps in both ambition and implementation,” it added.
The IEA also cautioned on rising instances of negative prices and curtailment — when plants have to switch off because their power cannot be used — as new wind and solar farms are rolled out faster than cables for transmission and batteries for energy storage.
“Policymakers need to play close attention to supply chain security and grid integration challenges,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA.
The IEA said a major factor in the US downgrade was President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which has sped up the end of tax credits for green developments. Permits for wind and solar projects on federal land or waters have also been suspended.
“With the pushing forward of deadlines, renewable capacity additions are now projected to peak in 2027, then decline in 2028 and remain stable through 2030,” the IEA said.
Revising down its high growth forecast for China’s renewables growth by 2030 by 5 per cent, the IEA cited policy changes which would limit earnings for new projects.
But it added that China “continues to account for nearly 60 per cent of global renewable capacity growth” and was on track to meet its target for wind and solar power five years early by 2035.