UK car forecourts turn into gold mines as second-hand market surges
UK dealers’ profit margins and shares soar as shortage of new models boosts used vehicle prices
Back in March, the outlook for Britain’s car dealers was bleak.
But in the space of a few months, the car forecourt has turned into a gold mine as demand for second-hand vehicles has pushed up prices and restored the health of a sector that had been battered by the pandemic.
Big listed groups Vertu, Pendragon, Lookers and Marshall Motors have all benefited from profit upgrades and surging shares on the back of a flood of orders for second-hand cars.
“Pretty well every player in the sector has seen an abnormal level of profitability and therefore cash generation,” said Robert Forrester, chief executive of Vertu.
The profitability boost is mainly down to the shortage of new cars because of supply chain bottlenecks and the global chip crisis, which have diverted consumer spending to used vehicles and forced up prices.
Savage cost cuts have helped profit margins, too, with tens of thousands of jobs cut across the sector in the past two years.
For Vertu, the combination of rising prices and falling costs led to its fourth profits upgrade of the year, announced in December.
It now expects earnings of “no less than £70m” compared with a modest forecast of £24m in May and a decision not to offer guidance in March because the market’s outlook was so uncertain.
Pendragon also raised profit forecasts by £10m in October to £70m, then by another £10m to £80m only weeks later.
Shares have enjoyed a strong run as well. The stock of Lookers, Marshall Motors and Vertu have tripled since July 2020, while Pendragon’s has doubled.
“You had this perfect storm of pent-up demand and restricted supply that has forced up new [and second-hand] car values,” said Mark Raban, chief executive of Lookers.
However, new car values have been artificially capped as UK laws mean forecourts, unlike those in the US, cannot charge more for a new model than the manufacturer’s recommended selling price.
This has resulted in a narrowing gap between second-hand car and new vehicle prices, with the value of some used models even overtaking those of new ones — an “unprecedented” situation, say industry executives.
Pendragon chief executive Bill Berman said prices were rising so fast at one point that used-car values were surging while the vehicles stood on the forecourt.
“We had a situation where we bought [a car] in July, and sold the car in September, and the price had gone up by 10 per cent. That just never happens.”
On Auto Trader’s site, a quarter of nearly-new cars, classed as less than a year old, are now on sale for more than the new models, the company said. Almost half the used cars are within 5 per cent of the new sale price.
“It’s a seller’s market,” said Ian Plummer, commercial director at the company. “It’s a fundamental question of supply and demand.”
The group found average prices on used cars had increased by £3,400 between May and November.
Costs have been pared back steeply, too, with big job cuts and fewer cars on the lots. Before the shortages, Lookers had about 12,000 second-hand cars scattered across its sites. Today the figure is closer to 8,000.
“We all learned a huge amount through this period — keeping our inventory down is the best thing we can do to keep costs down,” said Lookers chief Raban.
In addition, dealers are offering fewer discounts and bargains, meaning higher margins, while several operators chose not to repay government furlough money for staff laid off while showrooms were closed last year.
The question now is how long will the topsy turvy conditions last.
Some think it may take years for supply and demand to rebalance, despite the slowing of price rises in the past month.
“If you look back at the recession, the market took three to four years to normalise again,” said Forrester at Vertu.
“We anticipate tight used car supply certainly for the next six months, but it could well be three to four years before we return to normal. There’s just a raft of new cars that are now never going to be made.”
Many dealers also rely on a steady stream of returning cars from personal leases, company cars or rental groups to bolster their second-hand fleets.
But the dearth of new models over the past 18 months means the stream will dry to a trickle over the next three years, putting further pressure on used prices.
“You can’t make a used car,” said Plummer at Auto Trader. “Today’s fallow new car market becomes tomorrow’s fallow used car market.”
Another key question is whether dealers can stick with lower stock levels and more disciplined pricing with fewer bargains and discounts on offer, which have kept margins high, once supply pressures ease.
This could depend on the carmakers themselves, which often push vehicles to dealerships to hit quarterly production targets that then triggers discounting at the forecourts, said Pendragon’s Berman.
“There’s an adage in the car industry: In good times you develop bad habits, and in bad times you develop good habits,” he said.
“Hopefully, everyone will have learned their lesson this time.”