The Italian bank is ready to pick up the pieces if an all-German merger fails
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UniCredit’s dealmaker cum chief executive Jean Pierre Mustier (pictured below) isn’t a man who gives up on things easily.
He last made a play for Commerzbank back in 2017; now, with talks on a Deutsche Bank/Commerz merger finally beginning, news reaches FT towers that the Italian bank is once again waiting in the wings.
A UniCredit/Commerz combination ticks more traditional M&A boxes, since it has the benefit of geographic diversification, while also offering greater scale in a key market by combining UniCredit’s German HVB business with Commerzbank’s domestic network.
It would also play well with regulators at the European Central Bank, who see a pan-eurozone bank merger as a far healthier systemic development than the creation of a too-big-too-fail German champion.
But the odds are still against the charismatic Frenchman.
Even though a Deutsche/Commerz deal would result in bigger job losses, it seems the favoured option among Germany’s rulers and is seen (perhaps aspirationally) as a way of securing Germany’s future as a global banking powerhouse.
Broader support at UniCredit for the deal is also unclear, leading to serious execution risk should Commerz entertain a second suitor.