Spy agencies fear export of jihadi terror In the Syrian city of Raqqa, the nominal “capital” of the caliphate proclaimed last weekend by the militant Islamist group Isis, a picture recently surfaced of a young French jihadi sitting behind a sturdy desk, like a clerk of terror. Tacked to the wall behind him was a doodle of the Eiffel Tower, its top snapped off by a bomb blast – a perverse reminder of a far away home in lieu of the usual family snapshot.
The image illustrates the fear gripping European, Russian and US intelligence agencies. The prospect of their own citizens returning from Syria to conduct terror attacks against them is universally shared. In recent days, these concerns appear to have become all the more acute. US counter-terrorism authorities have now requested airports in Europe and the Middle East significantly to heighten their scrutiny of passengers. The ostensible cause, according to security officials, is evidence that al-Qaeda’s most virulent offshoot, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), has begun to share its bomb-making knowledge with Syrian groups. Such a combination could prove lethal. AQAP has long been the repository of al-Qaeda’s bombmaking knowhow. The plots of Ibrahim al-Assiri, the 32 year old AQAP chemist behind the 2009 underpants bomb plot and 2010 printer cartridge bomb plot, have until now been held in check by near constant US drone attacks in the terror group’s Yemen heartlands. For AQAP to spread its influence to Syria, where more than 3,000 European fighters are waging war in a complex milieux of jihadi groups whose activities western intelligence agencies are only able to partially monitor, would be a disaster. Foreign fighters in Syria have already proved willing to blow themselves up in the name of Islam. “They are obedient and they are willing,” says Peter Neumann, director of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation at King’s College London. “They are like child soldiers. They do what they are told to.”
The picture, however, is complex. The threat to Europe and the US is far from immediate or certain. According to security officials on both sides of the Atlantic no concrete plot controlled and guided by a Syria-based group has yet been uncovered, with or without input from AQAP. AQAP’s engagement in Syria has also been specific. The group has been in contact with Jabhat al-Nusra, the official al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, American intelligence suggests. The two groups have been in contact for months, most notably in discussing how al-Qaeda should deal with the challenge to its authority posed by Isis. Compared with Isis, Jabhat al-Nusra has so far played a quieter, more focused and moderate game in waging jihad in Syria. But with Isis’s declaration last week of a caliphate – and with it a direct challenge to the authority of al-Qaeda’s chief Ayman al-Zawahiri – the stakes have been raised. Both groups, in struggling for leadership of the global jihadi movement, may now look to lay stake to their claims by staging spectacular terror attacks on their traditional foes. I am very afraid the next step might be a terror attack in Europe – America is too far - Jean Pierre Filiu, Sciences Po Isis has already indicated it may look to do so – particularly if the US intervenes in the Iraqi conflict further. In a Twitter campaign last week, Isis’s accounts kicked off a threatening campaign under the hashtag “#CalamitywillbefallUS”, featuring images of 9/11 and dead American soldiers. “I am very afraid the next step might be a terror attack in Europe – America is too far,” says Jean Pierre Filiu, professor of Middle East studies at Sciences Po in Paris. “As Caliph, [Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, Isis’s leader] can proclaim offensive jihad. Militarily, he is now overstretched so to try to gain momentum he needs terror to strike global targets.” It is a concern echoed by one senior Israeli intelligence officer: “It’s a dynamic that is a definite danger to European and US security,” he says. “Either Isis or Nusra may want to do a huge terror attack. Someone needs to be the new bin Laden.” Map :{http://www.ft.com/ig/sites/2014/isis-map/}