Shrinking Europe
No fewer than 10 member states saw falling populations in 2018, with the biggest declines recorded in Latvia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Lithuania
Europe’s combustible immigration debate is taking on an extra dimension as the bloc starts to confront its unenviable demographics.
Andrej Plenkovic, the Croatian prime minister, has decided to elevate population decline to the top of his agenda as Zagreb assumes the EU's rotating presidency.
The topic is, as he told the FT in December, an existential one for many EU member states — especially those in the east and south-east of the bloc that are grappling with low birth rates and emigration to wealthier countries assisted by freedom of movement.
No fewer than 10 member states saw falling populations in 2018, with the biggest declines recorded in Latvia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Lithuania, according to Eurostat, and EU states are at the top of the list for population declines by 2050 according to the UN.
Croatia, which on Thursday night formally launched its presidency in front of invited journalists and European Commission bigwigs, wants the EU to study mechanisms to reverse this trend. The potential policy responses contain political landmines.
Liam Patuzzi, an analyst at the Migration Policy Institute, says countries confronting shrinking populations need to consider immigration as a way of plugging skills gaps and boosting tax revenues. He points for example to Poland, which has permitted a surge in arrivals from neighbours led by Ukraine, making it the world's leading destination for temporary work migration in 2017.
This is, needless to say, a politically hazardous path to walk in the context of rising populism and the unresolved battle over asylum policy. Indeed, when it comes to immigration, Mr Plenkovic appears considerably more eager to focus on his tough border security measures and efforts to drive down unlawful crossings from countries such as neighbouring Bosnia Herzegovina.
In Hungary, Viktor Orban on Thursday said he is designating fertility clinics a “strategic” sector as he seeks to lift birth rates without boosting immigration.
Immigration by no means represents a panacea when tackling structural problems such as a declining birth rate, Mr Patuzzi stresses.
For central and eastern Europe, EU cohesion funds could lift economic performance and deter younger residents from heading west, but here too the political landscape is unforgiving given recent proposals to slash cohesion spending by 12 per cent in the forthcoming seven-year budget.
Croatia is asking the EU to weigh up a host of family-friendly policies, including more generous parental support, as it seeks ways of reversing dismal birth rates.
When it comes to the brain drain faced by many member states, the departure of the UK from the EU will raise barriers to at least one possible destination.
But for young citizens in the EU's poorer countries, it will remain relatively easy to decamp to richer western countries — further damaging tax bases and worsening ratios between the working and retired population.
“This risks becoming a spiral,” says Mr Patuzzi.