Scientists call on UK to rethink ‘dangerous’ coronavirus strategy
Independent group warns that virus must be suppressed rather than ‘managed’
The UK government must rethink its “dangerous” coronavirus strategy, which will “inevitably” lead to local epidemics and further lockdowns, an independent group of scientists said on Tuesday.
The group, chaired by David King, the government’s former chief scientific adviser, called on Westminster to “take all necessary measures to control the virus through suppression” rather than “simply managing its spread”.
The scientists, dubbed the “independent Sage”, convened as an alternative to the government’s top scientific advisory group, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, in a push for greater transparency about how key decisions about the UK’s response to the coronavirus pandemic are being made.
Their report comes just days after the prime minister outlined the first tentative steps towards relaxing the lockdown in England, and unveiled a new “stay alert” slogan, which has drawn widespread criticism for being confusing and unclear.
Dr Zubaida Haque, deputy director of the Runnymede Trust and a member of the group, said the advice to stay alert and to only go to work if you had to and could do so safely was “not a genuine choice for vulnerable people”, who were in effect being asked to choose between staying safe and feeding their families.
“This is a reckless message and it puts the onus of responsibility on individuals,” she said.
The group’s report outlined 18 recommendations for ministers, and said it was crucial that the transmission of coronavirus in the community was controlled before social distancing measures were relaxed.
The goals of “flattening the curve” or ensuring the NHS is not overwhelmed are “counterproductive and potentially dangerous”, it said, adding that if the virus is not suppressed, there will be numerous local epidemics, potentially resulting in more deaths and further partial or national lockdowns.
The group also criticised the government’s decision in mid-March to stop contact tracing, and said it was crucial that ministers implement a two-week quarantine period for anyone entering the country as soon as possible.
Criticising the government’s “top down” approach to testing, which has included outsourcing to private contractors, the scientists said that to be most effective, contact tracing, and management of the disease more generally, should take place at a local level.
“It was a great disappointment that the government has not rebuilt [contact tracing] capacity over the last three months in local authorities,” said Allyson Pollock, professor of public health at Newcastle University and one of the group’s members.
The scientists also described government statistics about the pandemic as “inaccurate, incomplete and selective”. Prof Pollock said more information was needed about testing targets and their precise goals.
Although the government has rejected the use of international comparisons of infection and death rates, the group — as well as a wide range of other scientists — said the comparisons could be useful.
The “most striking comparison is the difference between countries that took action quickly”, such as South Korea, Germany and Singapore, and “those that did not”, such as the UK, Spain and the US, the report said.
The group’s recommendations will be sent to Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, the first ministers of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and Jeremy Hunt, the chair of the health select committee.