One in five people do not expect to have as many children as they want
UN study suggests economic strains, including job insecurity, among the biggest barriers to parenthood
Nearly one in five people in 14 countries do not expect to have the number of children they desire, largely because of economic and social barriers, according to a UN study.
“Fertility rates are falling, in large part because many feel unable to create the families they want, and that is the real crisis,” said Natalia Kanem, executive director at the United Nations Population Fund, which is behind the report published on Tuesday.
Prohibitive costs of raising children, job insecurity, housing, the lack of a suitable partner and sexism were all obstacles to parenthood, Kanem said, adding: “Women in particular are being unfairly blamed.”
The study is based on a survey of 14,000 people across developed and developing countries, including the US, Germany, Nigeria and Thailand, that together represent more than a third of the global population.
Fertility rates — the number of births per woman over a lifetime — have fallen below 2.1 births per woman in over half of all countries, the threshold needed for population stability without immigration.
Among the survey respondents of reproductive age, 18 per cent did not expect to have the size of family they want. Just 38 per cent of people aged 50 or over said they had reached their ideal number of children, while 31 per cent had fewer than desired.
Most people wanted children, according to the study, with 38 per cent of women and 35 per cent of men across the 14 countries saying they ideally wanted two children and another 15 per cent of people desiring three children.
Economic constraints were among the most frequently cited barriers to parenthood, with 39 per cent of respondents mentioning financial limitations, 21 per cent citing job insecurity and 19 per cent pointing to housing. Health and fertility issues also play a role. A lack of suitable partners, was another obstacle, according to the survey conducted in November and December.
“The answer lies in responding to what people say they need: paid family leave, affordable fertility care, and supportive partners,” Kanem said.
The OECD has warned that the global decline in fertility poses a threat to future prosperity, as it increases fiscal pressures because of ageing populations. However, others, such as economist Oded Galor, have argued that declining fertility combined with higher education levels could enhance long-term prosperity.
The UN research supports similar national surveys. In the US, Gallup polling has consistently found since the 1970s that most people consider two or more children to be the ideal family size, even as the national fertility rate has fallen below replacement level, with similar findings from Japan.
In the UK, research has shown that only a quarter of millennials who want children are actively trying to conceive.
“Whilst some individuals [in the UK] desire to remain child-free, the empirical evidence suggests that there are a significant number who want children, but are currently unable to have them,” said Ann Berrington, professor of demography at the University of Southampton, adding that economic and health factors, or being unable to find the right partner, were among the reasons.
The UN report also notes that in some contexts, particularly in South Africa and Nigeria, a minority of under-50s expect to have more children than they would ideally like, citing a lack of support and low quality sexual and reproductive healthcare.