President Barack Obama will face a decisive test of his influence over Senate Democrats in December when he tries to fend off sanctions legislation that he believes could scupper nuclear negotiations with Iran. Senior members of both parties have called for new sanctions after rushing to criticise the historic interim agreement that was reached with Iran at the weekend, however some of the proposals might not clash with the next round of nuclear talks.
At a time when his credibility has been badly damaged by the healthcare debacle, the president will need to secure the support of Democratic leaders in the Senate, especially majority leader Harry Reid, if he is to avoid an embarrassing congressional rebuff to his efforts to negotiate a longer-term agreement with Iran over its nuclear programme. Mr Obama used a speech on Monday to take on the domestic critics of his Iran policy who are calling for new sanctions. “Tough talk and bluster may be the easy thing to do politically,” Mr. Obama said. “But it’s not the right thing to do for our security.” The deal signed on Sunday places caps on most of the central parts of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, in return for sanctions relief the US calculates at $6-7bn. The agreement gives negotiators six months to try and reach a final agreement that would require Iran to roll back its nuclear programme in exchange for lifting more sanctions. The interim agreement also says that the US will “refrain from imposing new nuclear-related sanctions” during the six months of the final talks. Mr Obama and secretary of state John Kerry are expected to begin lobbying against new sanctions this week, despite the Thanksgiving break. Congress is in recess until December 9. “The early read from Congress is that even some hawks are predisposed to giving the interim deal a chance,” said Cliff Kupchan, an analyst at the Eurasia Group. However, he said that it was still possible that Congress could become a major complicating factor in the next stage of the talks. The central figure in the forthcoming sanctions debate in Congress is likely to be Mr Reid. Last week, he signalled that he would support new sanctions legislation, however he adopted a more nuanced position on Monday. “When we come back [from recess], we’ll take a look at this to see if we need stronger sanctions,” he said in an interview on NPR. Mr Reid said that he had discussed the interim deal with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who called it a “historic mistake”. However, he added: “We all have to acknowledge that it’s an important first step.” Among Democrats, the sharpest criticism has come from Charles Schumer, the New York senator, who said that the “disproportionality of this agreement makes it more likely that Democrats and Republicans will join together and pass additional sanctions when we return in December”. However, the deal was also warmly welcomed by other leading Democrats, including California senator Dianne Feinstein, who called it a “significant step toward solving one of the most difficult security challenges facing the world today.” Tim Kaine, the Virginia senator, said that “this deal could bring us closer to a world less threatened by weapons of mass destruction.” The first priority for the administration will be to prevent any sanctions legislation that seeks to impose preconditions on the final-stage negotiations with the Iranians. A bill proposed last week by Bob Corker, a leading Republican senator, would set a strict timeframe for the next round of talks and would establish demands for what should be in the final agreement. Other senators have proposed bills that would insist Iran could not conduct any uranium enrichment under a final agreement – a condition US diplomats believe the Iranians would never accept. Beyond that, the administration will also try to finesse proposals that impose new sanctions if a final agreement is not reached – an option that is now being pushed by the powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee. Although the White House has said that Iran will face new sanctions if the talks collapse, a US official said on Monday that it would be “unhelpful” to pass such a measure during the negotiations. “Even if the sanctions do not kick in until the talks fail, it would still anger the Iranians,” said Mr Kupchan. “The last thing [Iran President Hassan] Rouhani needs is for his hardliners to come out and start saying ‘look what the Americans are trying to do to us’”. Administration officials argue that it would be simple to pass new sanctions if the talks fail, so while legislation can be prepared at the moment, there was no need to actually approve a bill. European officials said on Monday that the talks could potentially extend into a second six month period if a deal is not reached by May, however such a proposal is likely to be met with stiff resistance in the US Congress.