New carbon emissions figures cast a shadow over Paris
Hopes China was on track to cut pollution appear overly optimistic, writes Pilita Clark
New figures showing global carbon emissions in 2017 are likely to rise for the first time in four years make a gloomy backdrop to the UN climate talks in Bonn this week that were already looking difficult.
Climate-warming emissions were almost flat in the years between 2014 and 2016, despite a growing global economy. This had bolstered hopes that the world had finally found a way to “decouple” economic growth from carbon pollution, a goal that had seemed unimaginable only a few years earlier.
Many scientists say emissions should peak by about 2020 to have any hope of preventing dangerous levels of warming this century.
But the data published on Monday by an international consortium of climate researchers suggest levels could rise by 2 per cent this year, driven by a rebound in fossil fuel burning in China, the world’s emissions superpower.
It is too early to know if this will prove to be a one-off spike in a trend of decoupling, or the start of a fresh pattern of growth. Either way, it casts an unsettling light on the Paris climate accord that virtually every country in the world adopted in December 2015.
That agreement is supposed to hold global temperature rises “well below” 2C from the pre-industrial era, and preferably no more than 1.5C. To achieve this, countries have each published an initial round of plans to cut or slow their emissions. The trouble is, we already know this first round of pledges is nowhere near enough to meet the Paris accord’s goals.
The plans currently add up to only a third of the reductions needed to avoid 2C of global warming at least cost, according to a UN Environment Programme report last month. That leaves what the UN calls an “alarmingly high” emissions gap. This will be even harder to close if we are on the brink of a new period of carbon growth, considering the state of global climate politics.
Negotiators in Bonn are supposed to be crafting a set of rules, due to be finalised next year, ensuring countries ramp up future action enough to meet the goals of the Paris agreement.
That effort has been complicated by the decision of US president Donald Trump to withdraw from the accord. The US is the second-largest emitter after China and although Washington cannot legally pull out of the pact until 2020, Mr Trump has made it clear he has little interest in the Paris pledge made by his predecessor, Barack Obama, to cut US emissions by at least 26 per cent from 2005 levels by 2025.
Numerous US states and business leaders say they are still committed to the Paris agreement, despite Mr Trump.
But that still leaves a large question mark about China. Beijing has leapt to fill the political gap left by the US in global climate leadership. And there had been signs that China was on course to meet its Paris plan to halt emissions growth by 2030.
That hope has been dented by the new figures. It is hard to see the Paris accord succeeding unless they prove to be a temporary blip.