Michael Mann: Exxon’s forecast is a ‘recipe for climate disaster’
The writer is a professor in the department of earth and environmental science at University of Pennsylvania and author of ‘Our Fragile Moment’.
ExxonMobil’s annual outlook, published late last month, projects a world in which global CO₂ emissions decline by just 25 per cent between now and 2050, and oil and gas make up 54 per cent of the energy mix by the middle of the century. In no uncertain terms, this would be disastrous for humankind.
Exxon’s projection for 2050 would likely see global average temperatures increase by more than 2.4°C above pre-industrial levels. At around 1.2°C of warming, we have begun to witness what that future may look like. In 2022, severe flooding in Pakistan killed more than 1,000 people, displaced almost 8mn and resulted in economic damages in excess of $30bn. This year, India endured a weeks-long heatwave, in which temperatures frequently exceeded 50°C, resulting in hundreds of deaths.
The cost of extreme weather and climate disasters was nearly $100bn in the US alone in 2023. The global cost of climate damage is expected to reach into the tens of trillions by 2050. These events and their related costs are directly attributable to the burning of fossil fuels which generates greenhouse gas emissions.
Exxon is not simply projecting a future in which millions of people are put at risk, but is actively working — as it has for decades — to deliver that outcome. The company is not in the business of allowing the external environment to shape its future — it lies, lobbies and obstructs to ensure that government policies do not erode oil and gas demand. Its opposition to electric vehicles and bans on single-use plastics are the most recent examples of this. The “big lie” by Exxon was its denial of the reality of human-caused warming when its own scientists had secretly established this.
Exxon stands to make an enormous amount of money if it can successfully disrupt the clean energy transition. It has booked more than $120bn in profits over the past five years, including $59bn in profits in 2022 after a surge in energy prices following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A rapid transition away from fossil fuels — which is absolutely necessary if we are to limit global warming to safe levels — is not in ExxonMobil’s interests.
Exxon puts a lot of emphasis on energy equity, claiming that continued fossil fuel extraction is the only way to meet UN development goals. Its outlook conveniently omits any reference to the UN climate goals established by the Paris Agreement, or the COP28 agreement to transition away from fossil fuels. Exxon would like us to believe that if it stops drilling, energy prices will jump, leading to economic downturn and widespread unemployment. Yet the cost of climate action already greatly exceeds the investment costs of taking action.
Even the traditionally conservative International Energy Agency has stated that if we are to limit global warming below a catastrophic 1.5°C, there can be no new fossil fuel projects. There is a viable pathway to a safe climate future, it’s just not one that is in Exxon’s interests.
Exxon imagines a world in which 4bn people with inadequate access to energy become hooked on oil and gas, as is the case in the developed world. This would be a recipe for climate disaster and ironically, those in the developing world would be the hardest hit by the projected impacts of business-as-usual warming.
Exxon’s false appeal to charity is one of the industry’s preferred delay tactics. Millions of people suffer from energy poverty, not fossil fuel poverty, and that means there are far safer and more resilient pathways for development than the dirty pathway Exxon wants to force them into.
Exxon’s outlook is nothing more than an exercise in signalling. The company is signalling to governments that it does not care about their net zero policies and that it will be business as usual for as long as possible.
Its outlook should be called out for what it is: a window to a dangerous version of our planet, where Exxon places profit over people.