Michael Bloomberg weighs odds for run against Donald Trump
Billionaire eyes last chance to lead Democratic bid for White House in 2020
Americans opposed to the New York billionaire occupying the White House may soon have the choice of another one: Michael Bloomberg.
The former New York mayor and founder of the eponymous financial information company this week took another step towards a well-choreographed run for the presidency by re-registering his party affiliation as a Democrat.
Mr Bloomberg, who has flirted with White House campaigns before, had already whipped up anticipation by pledging $80m to Democratic candidates for next month’s midterm elections, since topped up to $100m. “That’s a hell of a lot of IOUs,” remarked one former staffer who, like other Bloomberg intimates, believes a presidential run is a foregone conclusion.
Just this week, Mr Bloomberg was in Florida, campaigning alongside Andrew Gillum, the Democratic candidate for governor, for whom he cut a $250,000 cheque. It was one stop in a globetrotting travel schedule that aides expect will have an increasingly domestic focus.
Mr Bloomberg will be 78 in 2020 and this would almost certainly be his last chance at the White House. Donald Trump’s presidency has increased the sense of urgency for a man who worries about the impact of global warming and has expressed disgust at Mr Trump’s embrace of rightwing nationalists.
“We need Democrats to provide the checks and balance our nation so badly needs,” Mr Bloomberg stated on Wednesday, calling his support for the party “a bulwark against those who threaten our constitution”.
Yet for all his resources and talent, a Bloomberg candidacy may still fall victim to timing and shifting political winds. Above all, a single question looms: is a billionaire executive the right candidate for an impassioned, MeToo era in which progressive voters are flocking to Democratic socialists such as Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the young activist who in June shocked pundits by toppling an incumbent Congressman in the Bronx? Mr Bloomberg was a Republican — albeit one with an independent streak — when he governed New York.
“Is he too far to the centre in a party that is increasingly moving to the left?” asked Hank Sheinkopf, the veteran campaign strategist who has previously worked for Mr Bloomberg.
Mr Bloomberg’s early leadership on gun control and climate change, Mr Sheinkopf argued, should persuade progressives of his bona fides. “Here’s a guy who uses his money to fight for causes that are significant to millennials,” he said.
Others are sceptical. David Jones, a political scientist at Baruch College at the City University of New York, concluded that a corporate titan with a reputation as a “pragmatic problem-solver” faced long odds in a party whose activists increasingly yearn for a fighter.
Still, Mr Jones saw a chance for Mr Bloomberg to emerge in a primary field crowded with candidates seeking to ape Mr Sanders. “It’s possible there’s a lane to the nomination that’s not being filled that he could occupy,” he said.
While an effective, some say transformative, mayor, Mr Bloomberg has never been regarded as a great campaigner. He is more accustomed to getting employees to laugh at his jokes than voters, one associate noted.
Any run, say friends and advisers, would be based on a dispassionate reading of the data and a conviction that there was a route to victory. Because of the demands of the electoral college, they have concluded that running as an independent is not feasible.
One Bloomberg aide acknowledged that predicting the shape of a Democratic race in two years’ time was difficult, but challenged the widely held belief that the party’s base was shifting left, citing recent contests in New York and elsewhere.
One certainty is that Mr Bloomberg has deep pockets that would allow him to sustain a campaign deep into the primary season. In the meantime, his midterm contributions should cement loyalty among recipients and prompt second thoughts among other Democrats eyeing a run.
Two years ago Mr Bloomberg drew up detailed plans to run as an independent but abandoned them after concluding that such a campaign might split the vote and deliver the presidency to Mr Trump, a candidate he accused of “preying on people’s prejudices and fears.” Mr Trump won anyway.
That victory has encouraged Bloomberg supporters by shaking assumptions about who American voters would accept as their president. Conventional wisdom was that a billionaire, Jewish bachelor from New York was a non-starter. But perhaps no longer, say supporters, pointing to the thrice-married occupant of the Oval Office and his considerable baggage.
Backers of Mr Bloomberg appreciate the contrast he would offer in a head-to-head race: he is a self-made billionaire, who built his company without relying on the gifts of a wealthy father, and has a record of accomplishment in government as a three-term New York mayor who started a far-reaching redevelopment of the city.
Mr Bloomberg certainly looked presidential when he led the Bloomberg Global Business Forum at the Plaza Hotel in New York during last month’s UN General Assembly. From France to Fiji, presidents and prime ministers praised his leadership on the issues that have preoccupied him as a philanthropist, political donor and networker since leaving elected office five years ago.
Asked why he had agreed to speak at the event, one private equity boss replied simply: “Because Michael asked me.”
With Mr Trump emphasising “America first” and raising tariffs on Chinese imports, Mr Bloomberg spoke passionately about the peace that multilateralism had brought the world and of how prosperity was strengthened by trade.
“Trade has made the world more peaceful and stable by connecting our nations and aligning our interests but the benefits of trade have not been distributed as widely as we think they should be and we must do more to address that,” he said.
It sounded as if he were rehearsing for primary debates against left-leaning Democrats such as Mr Sanders — perhaps because he was.