Meat alternatives/China: a swine thing
Size estimates of the plant-based meat products market in the next decade suggest opportunities in China exist but could easily end up a niche for hipsters
Will plant-based pork dumplings become the faux burgers of China? That is the hope of two US-based meat alternative companies. Impossible Foods plans to enter the world’s largest meat market with plant-based pork. Beyond Meat plans to start production in Asia late next year. China’s meat producers have started launching their own alternative meat. Shares have soared. But all are gambling on untested demand.
The timing seems right. The African swine fever epidemic has almost halved China’s herd. Supply of pork is expected to stay under pressure for at least five more years. A trade war with the US, the biggest pork exporter, has pushed prices higher. Shares of meat processing company Jinzi Ham and local rival MYS Group have rallied on plans to launch plant-based meat. Pea protein manufacturer Yantai Shuangta Foods’ shares are up 165 per cent this year. The market value of China's WH Group, whose US-based pork producer Smithfield Foods has launched a plant-based meat brand, is up 48 per cent.
But unlike the US, appetite for the new meat substitutes is weak in China. China already has an array of soy-based meat alternatives and tofu dishes for its vegan Buddhists. Outsiders may also vastly underestimate how crucial traditional pork is for Chinese cuisine. It would be difficult to replicate the texture of delicacies like pig fat, feet and brains.
This could explain why WH Group trades at 12 times forward earnings and MYS Group at 18, well below Beyond Meat’s over 270 times. Concerns about an immediate profitability crisis from rising pork prices will outweigh the hopes for alternative meat sales. This year, profit margins have turned negative at Jinzi Ham. Revenues at Yantai have declined almost a fifth in the past year.
The market for plant-based meat products could exceed $140bn in the next decade, estimates Barclays. That size suggests opportunities in China exist but could easily end up a niche market for hipsters. Even then, a flood of start-ups will keep share prices in check.