Lockdown could last six months, says UK government
Efforts to suppress coronavirus will be wasted if restrictions are lifted too soon
Normal life may not return to the UK for up to six months as the government warned that strict social distancing measures may continue into the summer to help the National Health Service cope with coronavirus.
Boris Johnson’s government is preparing for the number of deaths and cases of the disease to accelerate in the coming days. According to figures released on Sunday, 1,228 people have died in the UK from the virus — an increase of 209 in one day — and 19,522 have tested positive.
Speaking from Downing Street, Jenny Harries, deputy chief medical officer, warned that “all of our efforts will be wasted” if the UK ended social distancing measures too rapidly. The government will review the national lockdown, announced by Boris Johnson last Monday, within three weeks.
“Over time, probably over the next six months, we will have a three week review, we will see where we are going,” Dr Harries said, adding that she anticipated the numbers to get worse over the next one to two weeks. “We need to keep that lid on and then gradually we will be able to hopefully adjust some of the social distancing measures, and gradually get us all back to normal.”
Robert Jenrick, housing and communities secretary, said the government was not expecting the most stringent measures to be lifted in the near future. “Nobody’s pretending that this will be over in a few weeks.”
The nationwide lockdown restricts Britons from leaving their homes except for essential shopping and one period of exercise a day and is enforced by the police. All non-essential travel has been banned and only key workers are advised to use public transport.
Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, said the peak of the outbreak is “not a fixed point, a date in the diary like Easter” after reports suggested the government believes the week commencing April 13 will be the UK’s peak of the outbreak. He said behaviour would influence how long the strict social distancing conditions would last.
“There are different projections as to how long the lockdown might last but it’s not the case that the length of a lockdown is something that is absolutely fixed,” he told Sky News. “It depends on all of our behaviour. If we follow the guidelines we can deal more effectively with the spread of the disease.”
Mr Gove, who is playing a central role in the government’s preparations for the coronavirus crisis, acknowledged “everyone is making a sacrifice” but told the BBC that the country should “prepare for a significant period when these measures are still in place”.
Although some senior figures in the Johnson government are eager to ease the lockdown as soon as possible, scientific experts have warned that withdrawing them too quickly risks a second wave of coronavirus cases later this summer that could overwhelm the NHS.
Neil Ferguson, a professor at Imperial College London who has worked closely with Downing Street on modelling and dealing with the coronavirus outbreak, suggested that the full lockdown restrictions should stay in place “probably until the end of May, maybe even early June”.
Mr Johnson has also left open the possibility of tougher restrictions. The prime minister has written to every household this weekend to warn that “things will get worse before they get better” with the crisis.
He hinted that tougher measures may have to be introduced to help the NHS cope. “We will not hesitate to go further if that is what the scientific and medical advice tells us we must do.”
But Dr Harries suggested that the existing measures are unlikely to be extended until the first review has occurred. “We just need to watch it carefully, hold tight for a week or two, keep doing what we’re doing . . . and hopefully we’ll be on our way down a little bit,” she said.
Meanwhile Mr Gove also apologised to a company that had offered to help supply ventilator parts to the NHS and had not received a response. “I’m very sorry if that company says that it didn’t get a reply, I’ll investigate as soon as I’ve stopped talking to you,” he told the BBC’.
“If that company wants to get in touch directly with me, we’ll investigate, because there have been some cases where people had hoped they might be able to help, but in fact the material that they produce has not met the NHS specifications, it’s not what’s required in order to save lives, but we have been following up every single lead presented to us.”
Mr Gove said the NHS now had 8,000 ventilators, with another 8,000 due to be sourced from the UK and abroad. He also pointed out that another 10,000 may be supplied through a deal struck with several British companies, including Dyson. Ministers estimate around 30,000 ventilators will be required.