Italy’s Salvini to emerge as biggest winner in EU elections — poll
Eurosceptic parties forecast to hold more than a fifth of European Parliament seats
Italy’s far-right League under Matteo Salvini is expected to make some of the most striking gains by any political party in May’s EU Parliament election, according to the first forecast by the chamber itself of the expected outcome.
Eurosceptic forces are expected to retain more than one-fifth of seats in the next parliament and increase their influence, while the centre-left and centre-right groups that have dominated the parliament for decades are expected to lose their combined majority in the chamber.
The elections, taking place in all EU member states, are among the most eagerly watched in recent years. They could pave the way for anti-EU forces across Europe to coalesce in the parliament and disrupt how the bloc functions by taking up senior committee jobs and blocking votes on EU policies.
However, there is also likely to be substantial fragmentation, with uncertainty about which political groups within the parliament will work together.
According to the projections from the parliament, its Eurosceptic groups are expected to win 153 seats — the same as now, though the overall number of seats is being cut from 751 to 705 to account for the UK’s expected exit from the EU.
As well as Mr Salvini’s League, the Eurosceptic forces include Poland’s Law and Justice party, Italy’s Five Star Movement and France’s Rassemblement National, headed by Marine Le Pen.
Those parties are now split across three EU parliament groups but Mr Salvini, Law and Justice and Ms Le Pen have vowed to join forces after May.
Other Eurosceptic parties, including Spain’s far-right Vox and the Dutch Forum for Democracy, are projected to enter parliament for the first time.
Turnout for European Paliamnet elections has been slowly declining and fell to 42.6 per cent in 2014. But anti-establishment leaders, such as Mr Salvini and Hungary’s Viktor Orban, and pro-EU leaders such as France’s Emmanuel Macron see the vote as an important test for their credibility.
Mr Salvini’s League is on course to dominate in Italy by winning 32 per cent of the vote and 27 seats, according to the poll. If so, it would be the second-biggest party in the chamber after Germany’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union, which is forecast to hold 29 seats, down from 34 in the last election in 2014.
The CDU is a mainstay of the European People’s party, the parliament’s main centre-right group. The EPP is predicted to slip from 217 seats to 183 seats, while the centre-left Social Democrat grouping is projected to lose almost one-third of its seats — from 186 to 135.
The sliding fortunes of the parliament’s largest groups mean that the socialists and conservatives could fail to command 50 per cent of seats for the first time since the first European elections in 1979.
However, with support from liberal and the Green groups they could still form a broad pro-EU alliance.
Mr Macron’s La République En Marche party has hinted it will join forces with the liberals after the election but has made no commitment to any single group. The French president’s party is projected to win 20 French seats.
The parliament’s figures are based on a snapshot of national polls compiled in February and will be updated regularly until the elections, which take place from May 23 to 26.