Regional elections in Italy delivered warning signs for Matteo Renzi, the country’s reform-minded prime minister, even as candidates from his centre-left Democratic party comfortably won contests in Emilia-Romagna in the north and Calabria in the South.
There was a sharp decrease in voter turnout, signalling growing apathy and indifference towards politics among Italians battered by six years of economic crisis, and – in Emilia-Romagna, traditionally a stronghold of left-wing politics – a surge in support for the anti-immigrant, anti-euro Northern League.
Since taking control of the Italian government last February as a result of an intra-party coup, Mr Renzi, the 39-year-old former mayor of Florence, has benefitted from very high approval ratings that translated into sweeping gains in May’s elections for the European parliament.
But support for Mr Renzi and his party have dropped this autumn, as the Italian premier pressed parliament to approve contentious labour market reforms, clashing with trade unions and splitting his left-wing base. Meanwhile, disappointing economic data showed Italy is continuing to experience declining gross domestic product and high unemployment, and impatience with the lack of improvement among Italians may be growing.
Mr Renzi held campaign rallies both in Emilia-Romagna and Calabria last week ahead of the vote, the first concrete test of his party’s strength since the European elections. Because Mr Renzi’s reform agenda is so sweeping – including changes to the electoral and legislative process as well as economic reforms – and harmful to many entrenched interests, continuing public support is even more critical than usual to his political future.
“Turnout was poor, but the results were good: it was a clear 2-0 win,” Mr Renzi tweeted early on Monday morning after the votes were counted.
Stefano Bonaccini, the centre-left candidate supported by Mr Renzi in Emilia-Romagna, prevailed with 49 per cent of the vote compared with 29.9 per cent for Alan Fabbri, the centre-right’s choice to lead the region. But turnout in the affluent region of 4m people centred around Bologna plummeted to just under 38 per cent from around 70 per cent in the European elections and in the last regional election in 2010.
Meanwhile, support for Mr Fabbri’s anti-immigrant, anti-euro Northern League surged to nearly 20 per cent from 5 per cent in the European elections. Matteo Salvini, the leader of the Northern League, was ebullient. “The Renzi balloon is deflating. The league is flying high. Our community is growing everywhere with few friends among the powerful and many among the people,” Mr Salvini tweeted.
The surge of the Northern League is mitigated by the decline in the Five Star Movement, the protest movement led by comedian Beppe Grillo, which won 13 per cent of the vote in Emilia-Romagna on Sunday compared to 19 per cent in the European elections.
In Calabria, the Five Star Movement experienced an even sharper slump, to just 4.8 per cent on Sunday from 21.5 per cent in the European elections. In the southern region, Mario Oliverio, the centre-left’s candidate supported by Mr Renzi, took 61.6 per cent of the vote, compared with 23.6 per cent for Wanda Ferro, the centre-right’s candidate.
Across both regions, Forza Italia, the leading centre-right party founded by the scandal-prone former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, showed few signs of revival, suggesting it could be a long time before it re-emerges as a powerful opposition with a real chance of challenging the government. Forza Italia’s fortunes took a dive after Mr Berlusconi was forced out of office at the height of the eurozone crisis in 2011, partly because its founder failed to groom any successors.