Italian referendum: 5 things to watch out for
A rejection of Renzi’s measures risks political instability and market turmoil
When Italians head to the voting booths on Sunday for a referendum on constitutional reform, the stakes are high.
If the measures — championed by prime minister Matteo Renzi — are rejected, Mr Renzi would likely resign, plunging the country into a new period of political instability. There are concerns this might trigger market turmoil, hitting Italy’s vulnerable banks. It could also represent a new setback for the EU, since the prime minister’s opponents are dominated by anti-establishment forces.
The latest polling published two weeks ago showed the Yes camp trailing by a few percentage points, but we have been flying blind since. Voting will be open between 7am and 11pm local time on Sunday, with the results likely to be revealed early on Monday.
Here are five things to watch for:
1. Turnout
On the campaign trail two weeks ago, Mr Renzi shed some light on his strategy, saying that if turnout reaches 60 per cent of eligible voters, his Yes camp would prevail. His statement is based on the premise — which may be wishful thinking — that opposition to the reforms is vocal but shallow, while support is quiet but deep.
A 60 per cent turnout is not an implausible goal. It would be just above the 58 per cent turnout in the 2014 European elections, and well shy of the 75 per cent turnout in the 2013 parliamentary elections. We will have some clues as to whether Mr Renzi is reaching his target throughout the day, as the interior ministry releases interim turnout statistics at 12pm and 7pm local time.
In 2014, turnout at noon was nearly 17 per cent, and in the evening it was 41 per cent, so Mr Renzi would want significantly higher numbers.
2. Italian abroad
If the race is tight, it is Italians expats who might clinch it for the prime minister. About 1.6m Italians out of 4m registered abroad have been able to vote by post, and their support has been vigorously courted. Members of Mr Renzi’s cabinet have flown out to all corners of the earth, including Argentina, to rally Italians overseas. Opposition parties, including the Five Star Movement leader Luigi Di Maio, have done so as well.
Italians abroad are expected to back the Yes side: while once upon a time they were mainly centre-right voters, they have in the past two decades swung to Mr Renzi’s Democratic party, amid disappointment and embarrassment at the scandals engulfing Silvio Berlusconi.
The foreign vote has been the subject of controversy in recent days, with opposition members saying it was rife with fraud and favouritism towards the government. Mr Renzi has rejected the claims.
3. Shy voters
For all of the heated political debate in Italian piazzas, cafés, and television shows, there has been a constant refrain in the history of the country’s elections: people do not necessarily tip their hand in terms of who they will vote for.
During the cold war years, it was the Christian Democratic party that seemed to benefit from those shy supporters who keep quiet about their choice because they do not think it is popular — then vote in the secrecy of the polling booth.
Over the past two decades, Mr Berlusconi seemed to ride the wave of that mysterious force. Mr Renzi’s campaign, too, is hoping for a comeback victory on the back of the “silent majority” of moderate, centrist Italians.
4. Exit polls
If the result is an absolute blowout, one can probably trust the exit polls, which will be released as soon as precincts close and begin sending their results to the interior ministry on Sunday night.
But otherwise, it would be unwise to make any assumptions based on the exit polls. Not only were they unreliable in both the Brexit vote and the US election, they also have a history of big misses in Italy.
In the 2014 European election, they underestimated the strength of Mr Renzi’s Democratic party, pinning his share of the vote at 33 per cent, compared to the actual 41 per cent. In 2013, they overestimated the strength of the PD, and underplayed the comeback of Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party.
5. The swing regions
It is no accident that Mr Renzi spent a big chunk of the final 24 hours of his campaign in southern Italy, with stops in Naples, Palermo and Reggio Calabria. The south has emerged as the swing region of this referendum and the place where the Yes camp has trailed the most.
Renzi campaign officials believe that if they narrow the gap to hang on in the Mezzogiorno, they can then take advantage of their strength in central and northwestern Italy to win the contest overall. They are partly counting on apathy towards politics in the south to work in their favour: if many potential “no” voters don’t show up, it could help their cause.
One wild card is the more prosperous north-east, where the Northern League is extremely strong, and anti-immigrant sentiment runs deep. Opponents of Mr Renzi believe that this is another area of weakness for the Yes camp, which could swing the contest in their favour.