Italian exit polls deliver blow to Renzi
PM expected to speak to country after early indications reform plan
Matteo Renzi seems set to lose a referendum on his flagship constitutional reforms, according to exit polls released on Sunday night, a result that could lead to the Italian prime minister’s resignation.
Although exit polls have been unreliable in Italy in the past, they suggested a wide margin of defeat for the “yes’ camp championed by Mr Renzi, who designed the reforms to streamline the country’s political system. According to broadcaster Rai, the “no” camp won 58 to 54 per cent of the vote, while the “yes” camp garnered between 46 per cent and 42 per cent.
Mr Renzi is expected to speak at midnight local time, his spokesman said.
The Italian vote is seen as a litmus test for the strength of populism in Europe — and there are fears the outcome could plunge the country into political crisis and raise fears of turmoil in its banking system.
While Mr Renzi comes from the moderate centre-left, the opposition to his reforms was led by the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, led by comedian Beppe Grillo, Matteo Salvini, the leader of the anti-immigrant Northern League, and Silvio Berlusconi, the media tycoon and former prime minister.
The “no” coalition is not exclusively composed of populists, however. It also included other former Italian prime ministers such as Mario Monti and Massimo d’Alema, as well as an array of senior jurists who believed the reforms were poorly crafted and concentrated too much power in the hands of the executive branch.
A loss in Sunday’s referendum could seal the political downfall of the 41-year-old former mayor of Florence, who took office in February 2014 with a mission to reform Italy and will now see his tenure come to an abrupt end.
Earlier this year, Mr Renzi’s “yes” camp was widely expected to prevail in the referendum, but a combination of factors — including the weak economy, the migration crisis and problems in the banking industry — dented his popularity. Moreover, Mr Renzi chose to personalise the vote early in the campaign by threatening to resign if he lost, a move that galvanised and united the opposition against him.
Mr Renzi had tried throughout the campaign to channel the anti-establishment mood sweeping Europe in his favour, arguing that a vote to streamline Italy’s political system represented a much-needed change for the country. But his pitch was met with derision from the opposition, which dismissed him as a power-hungry establishment politician who was excessively close to the European elite and global finance.
“I don't like the Renzi government, I don't like what they are doing,” said Alfredo, a 68-year-old self-described communist voter at a polling booth on the Via Pannonia in Rome, near the ancient Baths of Caracalla. “I don't like the way Italy is subordinated to Europe. I am in favour of Europe but I want a Europe of the people,” he added after casting a “no” vote.
Livia Astolfi, a 44-year-old tourist guide, added: “I voted ‘no’ because I don't like the way the reform has been written. The Constitution is not carved in stone and it can be changed, but that's not the way of doing it. I think Italy needs a better reform, not the one they asked us to vote. I don’t trust the current government and its policies and I don’t want to choose the lesser of two evils."
Some, however, hoped he would win. “I am going to vote ‘yes’ because we [Italians] are bogged down and Renzi is trying to drag us out,” said Francesca Romana Freni, a 34-year-old biologist.
If Mr Renzi loses, many Italian political observers are expecting him to hand in his resignation to Sergio Mattarella, the Italian president, on Monday, triggering a round of talks on the formation of a new government.
Any new government would either be led by Mr Renzi himself, or another senior member of his centre-left Democratic party — with Pier Carlo Padoan, the finance minister, Pietro Grasso, the president of the Senate, Graziano Delrio, the transport minister, or Dario Franceschini, the culture minister, among the most-frequently mentioned candidates.
They would probably have a narrow mandate to carry the country to the next elections due in early 2018. But if there is no agreement on a new government, the country would face the prospect of snap elections.