Iran Slows Buildup of Near-Weapons-Grade Nuclear Fuel
Move apparently aimed at easing tensions with Washington
Iran significantly slowed the pace at which it is accumulating near-weapons-grade enriched uranium in recent months, the United Nations’ atomic agency reported on Monday, a move that could ease tensions with the U.S. and help open the way to broader negotiations over its nuclear program.
According to a confidential International Atomic Energy Agency report, Iran added 7.5 kilograms—about 16.5 pounds—of 60% enriched uranium in the three months to August, far less than the 51.8 kilograms it added in the previous six months.
The more slowly Tehran accumulates highly enriched uranium, the less potential fissile material it has for nuclear weapons.
The decision to curtail its accumulation of highly enriched uranium, which can be turned into weapons-grade fissile material in a matter of days, isn’t a significant change to Tehran’s nuclear program. It already has 121.6 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, enough for at least two nuclear weapons. Iran has also produced enough lower-grade fissile material to fuel several other weapons. The IAEA reports—it released two on Monday—also made clear that Tehran continued not to cooperate with the agency on other significant issues.
However, slowing the buildup of 60% enriched uranium moves in the direction of a key request from Washington as part of indirect talks between Iran and the U.S. aimed at de-escalating tensions between the two countries earlier this year. The Biden administration was pushing for Iran to stop adding to its 60% stockpile.
The amount of 60% enriched uranium added to Tehran’s stockpile in the quarter to August was the second lowest since Iran started gearing up its highly enriched uranium production in the spring of 2021.
Iran has hugely expanded its nuclear program over the past four years following the decision by the Trump administration to take the U.S. out of the 2015 nuclear deal, which placed strict but temporary controls on Tehran’s nuclear work in exchange for lifting a swath of international sanctions.
In April 2021, Iran started producing 60% enriched uranium, becoming the only nonnuclear country to do so.
Iran insists its nuclear program is for purely peaceful, civilian purposes. U.S. officials have said they believe it would take Iran several months to produce some kind of nuclear weapon although they say there is no evidence Tehran has resumed work on producing an actual nuclear weapon.
The Wall Street Journal reported last month that Iran had started slowing its accumulation of 60% enriched uranium and had potentially started reversing course by diluting a small amount of the material. While the pace of production of fissile material can fluctuate for a number of reasons, the decision to dilute material was a clear sign Tehran was intending to slow its buildup of the material.
The IAEA said on Monday that Iran had diluted to 20% enriched uranium 6.4 kilograms of the 60% material in July.
Its report presented a mixed picture on Iran’s other nuclear steps. It showed that Iran was largely abiding by another U.S. ask—not adding significant numbers of advanced centrifuges to its fleet of machines for enriching uranium.
However, while Iran’s overall stockpile of enriched uranium fell, there were significant increases in Iran’s buildup of 20% and 5% enriched uranium, which can fairly easily be further enriched to 60%.
The IAEA also reported that it had made no progress in winning Iran’s approval to install further cameras in Iranian nuclear-related facilities despite an Iranian promise in the spring to do this. Iran removed the cameras in June 2022, severely reducing the nuclear agency’s ability to monitor key Iranian activities, such as the number of centrifuge machines Iran is making for nuclear enrichment.
And the IAEA reported that Tehran had continued to largely stonewall its probe into undeclared nuclear material found in Iran from 2019. Both issues were being closely watched by Washington. It also reported that Iran had denied visas and refused to recognize agency inspectors, including experienced personnel, preventing them taking part in inspections in the country.
Last month, Iran released four U.S. citizens from prison into house arrest, the first step in a planned prisoner swap that Washington expects will eventually see them return home. If the U.S. detainees are set free, Iran will gain access to billions of dollars of oil revenue trapped in South Korea under U.S. sanctions. That process is likely to take some weeks.
For the Biden administration, the hope is to avoid any crisis with Tehran in the lead-up to next year’s presidential elections. Critics in Washington and elsewhere say the U.S. is preparing to reward Iran for taking U.S. citizens hostage and for a minor pause in its nuclear work while Tehran ramps up regional threats and supplies military assistance to Russia for its war against Ukraine.
U.S. and European officials told Iran that if there was de-escalation of tensions over the summer, they would be open to broader talks later this year, including on Iran’s nuclear program. Washington had also conditioned de-escalation on Iran and its proxy forces not attacking U.S. forces in the Middle East. Tehran has largely abided by that condition since a U.S. contractor was killed by an Iranian supported group in Iraq in March.
Still, relations between Washington and Tehran remain tense and it is unclear how much political space there is for broader dialogue. The situation in the Persian Gulf remains tense, with the U.S. sending F-35 jet fighters and thousands of Marines to the Gulf in response to attempted Iranian seizures of commercial vessels.
With Iran yet to release the U.S. prisoners or stop the accumulation of highly enriched uranium, some observers believe Washington appears willing to pay too high a price for a diplomatic opening.
“Slowing accumulation of 60% enriched material thus far does not impact Iran’s overall ability to make weapons-grade uranium for several atomic weapons in under three months,” said Andrea Stricker, deputy director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank that opposed the nuclear deal. “Washington is ceding valuable leverage to gain more meaningful restraints on Tehran’s nuclear program.”
Some discussions between Western countries and Iran are expected to take place on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting later this month.