Iran alarmed at rising tensions with Saudi Arabia
Tehran muzzles hardline mouthpiece but doubles down on regional ambitions
The depth of Iran’s alarm at rising tensions with Saudi Arabia, its main regional rival, became clear this week with the temporary closure of a newspaper closely allied with hardliners.
In Monday’s Kayhan, a headline hailed a ballistic missile attack by Iran-backed Houthi rebels on Riyadh, an assault Saudi Arabia said was an act of war by the Islamic Republic.
The daily even suggested that Dubai would be the next target of the Yemeni rebels, which are engaged in a bitter proxy war with their Saudi-backed rivals.
The report prompted alarm in Tehran, where the official line is that it is not involved in the civil war in Yemen.
The Supreme National Security Council on Wednesday accused the state-run paper of acting against national security, and the hardline judiciary ordered a two-day closure — a rare punishment for Kayhan whose editor is appointed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader.
The decision to close the paper highlights a tactical shift by the Islamic Republic, keen not to anger Saudi Arabia or the US even as it doubles down on its regional ambitions.
“This was a clear message to the world that the headline did not reflect Iran’s policy,” said a senior adviser to Iran’s foreign ministry.
“While Iran has not taken the possibility of direct military confrontation with Saudi Arabia seriously and has no intention of retreating from its regional policies, it wants to avoid any escalation because the opposite front — US, Israel and Saudi Arabia — is bigger and stronger.”
Iran and Saudi Arabia — self-proclaimed custodians of Shia and Sunnis in the Islamic world respectively — are locked in a power struggle that has intensified since the conflict in Syria. The election of Donald Trump, who is determined to rein in Iran and has deepened the US alliance with Saudi Arabia, has shifted the balance in their proxy wars.
In the past week alone, Iranian officials and political observers have been shocked by the missile attack on Riyadh and the sudden resignation of Saad al-Hariri as Lebanese prime minister. Riyadh had pushed for him to go in apparent protest at Tehran’s backing of the Hizbollah militia.
Iran’s carefully calculated approach towards the US and Saudi Arabia, which Hassan Rouhani, the centrist president, and the hardline Revolutionary Guards both support, is designed to limit the chances of military confrontation and safeguard the nuclear deal agreed in 2015 with major powers. The US president has refused to certify the nuclear accord, leaving the decision to Congress, which has until the end of this year to decide whether to re-impose crippling sanctions.
At the same time, Iranian analysts say Riyadh is determined to undermine Iran’s support for Lebanon’s Hizbollah, its main proxy force, reduce its influence in neighbouring Iraq and cut aid to the Houthis. This, they say, would help Saudis ease tense political infighting.
“Saudis are pushing to create an international consensus against Iran,” said Saeed Laylaz, a reform-minded analyst. “Saudi’s young leaders need to have controllable levels of crises with Iran to help smooth the succession of the crown prince [Mohammed bin Salman] from his father and his social and economic reforms.”
While Iran has made the conscious decision not to react angrily to any provocations, there is no sign that it is considering any retreat on its regional policies.
“Iran is aware that taking one step back means the Saudi-US-Israel alliance will become more aggressive,” said the adviser. “We cannot sit back and recognise Saudi hegemony in the region. Any concessions by either side can happen only through talks not conflicts.”
With the two sides already active in Yemen, some in Tehran now fear Lebanon could become a new pressure point.
“Iranian leaders think they are playing a chess game with the US and Israel which may show itself in a Iran-Saudi power struggle in Lebanon — a Pandora’s box where a conflict may start but might end up in Israel,” said Nasser Hadian, a reform-minded university professor of international relations.
“No one in Iran believes that Saudi Arabia — which could not even succeed in a Yemen with absolutely no power — would dare to strike Iran.”
The rivalry could also intensify in Iraq. More than 2m Iranian pilgrims went to southern Iraq on Thursday to mark the 40th day of martyrdom of Hossein, the third Imam of the Shia, in a display of power. “This gathering shows our potential but we are not going to use it unless necessary,” said the adviser.
“In the worst-case scenario, if there will be any military confrontation, Iran will respond with all its visible and invisible forces around the world and target Saudi Arabia, US and Israel which will create a big mess for everyone for a long time.”