Global temperatures are on course to rise to the highest level since the industrial revolution this year as humans drive the climate into “uncharted territory”, UK scientists warned on Monday.
Average temperatures between January and September were 1.02C above pre-industrial levels and, with just three months left in the year, 2015 is shaping up to be a record-breaker.
“These are the highest temperatures we have seen in our record, which goes back to 1850,” said Dr Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre climate change research office.
“It’s the first time I’ve seen such a big jump between one year and the next.”
A strong warming El Niño weather pattern this year explained part of the temperature rise but by no means all of it, researchers said.
“We’ve had similar natural events in the past,” said Stephen Belcher, the Hadley Centre’s director. “Yet this is the first time we’re set to reach the 1C marker and it’s clear that it is human influence driving our modern climate into uncharted territory.”
The findings were released weeks before delegates from nearly 200 countries are due to meet in Paris to finalise a global climate change agreement.
Governments have already agreed that global temperatures should not rise more than 2C from pre-industrial levels, a threshold scientists say should not be breached if the world is to avoid irreversible and risky changes in the climate.
Dr Stott said the fact that the 1C limit was likely to be broken this year did not mean the 2C marker was closer than previously thought.
But it was consistent with the steady rise in warming that climate scientists’ models predict will occur as greenhouse gas emissions from burning coal and other fossil fuels continue to grow.
“This year marks an important first, but that doesn’t necessarily mean every year from now on will be a degree or more above pre-industrial levels, as natural variability will still play a role in determining the temperature in any given year,” Dr Stott said.
“As the world continues to warm in the coming decades, however, we will see more and more years passing the 1C marker — eventually it will become the norm.”
The research came as Amber Rudd, the energy and climate change secretary, faced questions about a leaked letter to her colleagues showing how far the UK was from meeting EU-wide targets to boost renewable energy.
The UK is supposed to obtain 15 per cent of its energy from renewable sources such as wind and solar farms by 2020. That includes energy for heating and transport as well as electricity.
In her letter, reported in The Ecologist magazine, Ms Rudd suggests internal departmental forecasts not made public show that the UK is on track to get only 11.5 per cent of its energy from renewables by 2020, up from about 6.3 per cent today.
The 2020 target implies the UK will have to get about 30 per cent of its electricity from renewables by 2020 and Ms Rudd has emphasised that this goal is likely to be met with wind, solar and other renewable systems already accounting for almost 20 per cent of the country’s power generation.
An energy department spokesman said: “We do not comment on leaked documents.”
He added: “We continue to make progress to meet our overall renewable energy target.”
The head of energy at Greenpeace, Daisy Sands, said it was deplorable that the government was expecting to miss its EU targets while Ms Rudd was cutting subsidies for onshore wind and solar power plants.
“The government’s claim to leadership in the Paris climate negotiations requires us to have targets, but we must meet them too,” she said.