Global population to shrink this century as birth rates fall
UN report shows earlier — and lower — peak for number of people in the world to reach its maximum level
The world is set to have 200mn fewer people than previously expected by 2100, according to a UN report that highlights the dramatic impact of falling birth rates on the global population.
The latest edition of the World Population Prospects, a report published by the UN every two years, said the number of people would grow from 8.2bn in 2024 to a maximum of around 10.3bn in 2080, before declining to around 10.2bn by the end of the century.
The 2022 edition of the same report estimated the global population would peak at 10.4bn by the 2080s and remain at that level until 2100. Previous editions had forecast uninterrupted growth into the 22nd century.
“The demographic landscape has evolved greatly,” said Li Junhua, under-secretary-general for economic and social affairs at the UN. “In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously anticipated, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions.”
Globally, women were having one child fewer, on average, than they did around 1990, the report said.
In more than half of all countries, the average number of live births per woman is already below 2.1, the level at which the population is stable. In nearly a fifth of all jurisdictions covered by the report — including China, Italy, South Korea and Spain — there were fewer than 1.4 live births per woman, a level described by the UN as “ultra low”.
Wolfgang Lutz, founding director of the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital in Vienna, said the drop-off in fertility rates was “likely to have to do with value changes in the younger generation, for whom having children evidently is less important as a key dimension of a successful life than it was for previous generations”.
The UN reported that in 63 jurisdictions, containing 28 per cent of the world’s population in 2024, including China, Germany and Japan, the size of the population peaked before 2024.
By 2100, Europe’s population is set to shrink by 21 per cent from its peak in 2020, marking the largest decline of any continent.
The fall in population could help mitigate climate change, by lessening demand for carbon-intensive activities, such as flying or the production of energy generated by burning fossil fuels. It can also play a role in reducing deforestation, which has often been carried out to clear the way for food production, housing and employment.
The average person contributes to 4.3 metric tons worth of CO₂ emissions, according to the World Bank, although this is not evenly distributed with people in western nations historically having a much larger carbon footprint.
Junhua said an earlier and lower peak in global population was “a hopeful sign” that pressures on the environment could be lessened.
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Some economists, such as David Miles, professor of financial economics at Imperial College Business School, have highlighted how a shrinking population diminishes pressures on housing, infrastructure and services. Others think countries could make more of their “longevity dividend”, capitalising on healthier older generations.
However, a shrinking working-age population and a higher proportion of older people will add pressure on public finances.
“The problem is that with fewer workers, you get less growth and less tax, and with more incapacitated old people, you need to provide more care, medicine and welfare,” said Charles Goodhart, professor at the London School of Economics.
“If medicine and medical science cannot deal with the diseases of the old, we will have a lot of incapacitated old people with fewer young people to look after them, and it will become very difficult,” said Goodhart.
The UN urged societies ageing at a fast pace to use technology to improve productivity, boost life-long learning and create opportunities to extend working lives.