Giorgia Meloni celebrates Italy’s longest-serving government since 1945
Rightwing prime minister has so far defied critics with pragmatic policies and stable coalition
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is today celebrating a record for political longevity by her rightwing coalition, which has defied doubters to become Italy’s longest-lasting government since the second world war.
In a country notorious for frequent political crises and coalition break-ups, Meloni’s three-party coalition has spent 1,413 days in power — one day more than Silvio Berlusconi’s second government in the early 2000s and seven weeks shy of four years.
“Being a government that stays stable for four years in Italy is something that has never happened before,” said Ylenja Lucaselli, a member of parliament with Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, which is holding a huge festive rally in Bari on Friday night with lights, DJs and a speech by the premier to mark the occasion. “This is something very precious.”
Italy’s recent political stability under Meloni contrasts sharply with the situation in countries such as the UK, now on its fourth prime minister since Meloni was installed in October 2022 in the final days of Liz Truss’s ill-fated government.
Meloni — who began her political career as a teenaged activist with the neo-fascist Italian Social Movement founded by surviving loyalists of the fascist dictator Benito Mussolini — is celebrating her longevity in office after a series of recent setbacks, including a major falling out with US President Donald Trump, and ahead of a tough re-election battle next year.
But opposition politicians say the hype around the government’s longevity record is cover for the lack of progress in tackling the economy’s longstanding structural problems, including high energy costs and low productivity.
GDP growth has been below 1 per cent, and decelerating, in the past three years, making Italy one of the slowest-growing economies in Europe, despite an infusion of nearly €200bn from the EU’s post-Covid recovery fund.
This year’s growth is forecast at between 0.5 per cent and 0.8 per cent, while the public debt ratio has risen from 134 to 138 per cent of GDP.
Yet Meloni and her coterie of loyalists have shown little appetite for growth-enhancing structural reforms, aside from protracted discussions on restarting nuclear power production to generate affordable, sovereign energy.
The coalition has spent much of its legislative energy on “security bills”, creating new criminal offences and toughening punishments for crimes. Meloni also devoted political capital to a failed justice system reform, which was rejected in a national referendum.
“She managed to be stable because she didn’t do anything. She didn’t disturb any vested interests, and she didn’t disturb the normal equilibrium,” said Lia Quartapelle, a member of parliament from the opposition Democratic Party. “These four years — which could have been put to good use — were completely wasted.”
But Meloni has proven to be far more pragmatic than her political roots may have suggested.
Giovanni Orsina, head of the political science department at Rome’s Luiss University, said Meloni’s biggest achievement had been to steer Italy through a period of geopolitical turmoil by forging an effective working relationship with Brussels, adhering to strict fiscal discipline and supporting Ukraine. “She has kept the boat afloat,” Orsina said.
While adopting harsh tactics to stop irregular migrants from crossing the Mediterranean into Italy — such as impounding charity rescue boats and building offshore detention centres in Albania — her government has also increased permits for legal foreign workers to address labour shortages.
When Meloni took office, investors were worried about her past as a fiery populist who spent years in opposition railing against Brussels and global financial elites. Italian government 10-year bond yields were 220 basis points higher than those of Germany, suggesting a high level of risk in Italy.
But as Meloni displayed her prudence, Italy’s credit ratings were upgraded and the spread steadily narrowed, reaching a 15-year low of about 60 basis points in February, though it has widened again since the US-Israel attack on Iran.
“What is widely recognised is that this government has been very cautious on the fiscal front,” said Filippo Taddei, chief southern European economist of Goldman Sachs. “They have gone through two different energy crises, and they have managed the fiscal position fairly well.”
Rohan Khanna, head of European rates strategy at Barclays, said Meloni had “made Italy a sort of beacon of political stability” in Europe, adding that “the market has appreciated how they have gone about their business”.
Ordinary Italians are less enthusiastic. Though Italy’s rate of employment for those aged 20 to 64 rose to an all-time high of 67.6 per cent last year, it is still the lowest in the EU, well below the 76.1 per cent average. Real wages were about 6.1 per cent lower at the start of this year than in early 2021, according to the OECD, highlighting the long-term squeeze on household incomes.
Yet pollsters say Meloni’s favourability ratings have remained relatively stable over the past year, buoyed by her strong communication skills and perceived authenticity — and by Italian voters’ low expectations of their governments.
“When we ask Italians about the economic situation, health or security, they are mostly unsatisfied, but they are not blaming the government for it,” said Rado Fonda, head of research for SWG, an Italian polling agency.
Lorenzo Pregliasco, founder and CEO of pollster YouTrend, said Meloni’s standing was also enhanced by the weakness and unpopularity of her squabbling centre-left rivals.
“In politics, you don’t judge government and leaders against the Almighty — you judge them against opponents,” Pregliasco said. “As of now, you have an electorate who sees a government that hasn’t delivered much, but many voters believe the current opposition would be even less credible — and maybe even more dangerous — when it comes to handling the economy.”