Former Revolutionary guard to be speaker of Iran’s parliament
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s selection is a victory for the hardliners seeking to solidify their power
A former commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has been chosen as the next speaker of parliament, in a move that could strengthen the elite force’s grip on power ahead of next year’s presidential election.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has twice run for president, won the vote in the legislative body on Thursday with the backing of 230 members of the 290-seat parliament.
The radical new parliament was ushered in by February’s elections, and analysts believe it will be used as a launch-pad by institutions such as the Revolutionary Guards to put an end to pro-reform policies of President Hassan Rouhani, who steps down next year.
“This is the first big step by the guards who are getting increasingly impatient to take over all the state’s affairs,” said Saeed Laylaz, a reformist analyst. “It can help them win the next presidential election and stop political infighting of reformists and conservatives with hardliners which has created a deadlock in running the country.”
The decision by Donald Trump two years ago to pull out of the landmark nuclear deal with Iran and reimpose the toughest sanctions against the Islamic republic struck a blow to reformists and empowered hardliners who had argued that Washington was untrustworthy.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have developed political and economic interests over the past three decades while expanding their military role in the Middle East. The 120,000-strong ideological force has become the most powerful institution in the republic and is expected to play a crucial role in the eventual choice of a successor to Iran’s supreme leader, 81-year old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The guards have benefited from international tensions over the past year which were ratcheted up by the shooting down of a US drone, the seizure of a British-flagged tanker and the US killing of their veteran Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in Iraq.
“The guards have overtly or covertly gained control over more than 50 per cent of the country’s affairs and naturally the election of Mr Ghalibaf will help them increase this role,” said Mohammad-Sadegh Javadi-Hesar, a reformist politician.
But he said the hardliners still faced problems. “Their power does not come from any popular agenda, rather it comes from the weakness of reformists who theoretically have exploded and are unable to convince their supporters any more.”
Ever since the reformists swept to power in 1997 they have faced obstruction from Iran’s powerful hardline forces, notably in the guards and the judiciary. Top reformist candidates have not been allowed to stand in national elections since 2004.
Many reformists, who helped Mr Rouhani win a surprise victory in 2013 and a landslide in 2017, have become disillusioned with the president. They believe he has failed to promote political, economic, social and cultural reforms, and tried to appease the guards after initially attempting to curb their influence.
With a new hardline parliament, Mr Rouhani could face a tricky last year in office. Mr Ghalibaf pulled out of the 2017 presidential race at the last minute after a heated televised debate with Mr Rouhani in which both accused each other of corruption, allegations which became the highlight of the election campaign.
Mr Rouhani said on Wednesday that his government sought “brotherhood” from the legislative body and that there was “no tolerance for a war of words” because the country was struggling with the economic consequences of both the US sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic.
Ayatollah Khamenei said last week that he was hopeful that the next government would be “young”, “agile” and ideologically motivated rather than “exhausted and old” — the terms that hardliners have used against Mr Rouhani and his team.
Analysts expect a figure close to the guards to sweep to power next year and there is speculation that 58-year-old Mr Ghalibaf, a former mayor of Tehran, may once again run for the presidency.
The low turnout in February’s elections helped hardliners to victory as pro-democracy voters stayed away from the polls.
“Hardliners will try hard to change slogans to win the presidential poll and they will win it even though they will find themselves stuck in their own contradictions,” said Mr Javadi-Hesar. “They will have no choice but to behave differently from before and try to open up the country even if to some extent.”