Excess UK deaths in Covid-19 pandemic top 50,000
Official figures from statistical agencies much higher than government’s coronavirus tally, which stands at 32,065
The number of UK deaths during the coronavirus pandemic over and above normal levels has exceeded 50,000, official figures confirmed on Tuesday.
The Office for National Statistics said that in the week ending May 1, there had been 17,953 deaths in England and Wales recorded, 8,012 higher than the average of the past five years in that week, as the disease killed three times the normal number of people in care homes.
This represented the seventh consecutive week that deaths exceeded normal levels and once equivalent figures from Scotland and Northern Ireland were included, takes total mortality across the UK during the pandemic to 50,979.
Nick Stripe, head of life events at the ONS, told the BBC: “[The figures are] actually the seventh highest weekly total since this data set started in 1993 so we have had four out of the top seven weeks in the last four weeks”.
At present this is the highest absolute level of excess deaths in Europe, although figures for Italy are not yet comparable because they are only available to the end of March.
The official figures from the UK’s statistical agencies are much higher than the daily announcement from the Department of Health and Social Care, which stands at 32,065.
Excess deaths is seen by ministers and the government’s scientific advisers as the best ultimate measure of the deadly impact of coronavirus. It includes people who died with the disease, but without being tested, in the community and in care homes.
It also includes indirect victims of the pandemic who died, perhaps because they were unable or unwilling to attend hospital for treatment.
The 50,979 figure for excess deaths is also higher than the Financial Times updating model predicted two weeks ago because more people had died outside hospitals than expected.
The FT model now estimates that slightly more than 60,000 more people will have died than normal from the start of the outbreak to May 11, based on the excess deaths to date and the latest daily figures from hospital deaths.
The big discrepancy between the daily government announcements in deaths and those recorded by the ONS again came in care homes, where mortality during the Covid-19 epidemic has been far higher than normal.
Mr Stripe said: “For the first time that I can remember, there were more deaths in total in care homes than there were in hospitals in that week.”
In the week ending May 1, 6,409 deaths were registered from people in care homes, more than three times the normal rate of 2,019 death registrations in England and Wales’ care homes in the last week of April.
Since the pandemic started, there have been 19,900 more deaths in care homes than normal for the time of year in England and Wales.
Evidence is growing that the virus became seeded among the most vulnerable and frail and elderly people in social care after hospitals discharged sick people into the care system without being tested for Covid-19 to build capacity in hospitals that was not then needed.
The level of excess death registrations had declined for the second week running, indicating that the lockdown had enabled the health system to suppress the virus and reduce its incidence in the community.
In the official data to date, from the week ending March 20 to May 1, there have been 46,566 excess deaths in England and Wales, 3,710 in Scotland and 703 in Northern Ireland.
Most of the deaths relate to a period just before the registration period because there is an average delay of four days between the date of death and its registration.
International comparisons with the UK figure cannot be completed yet because Italy has only registered total deaths up to the end of March.
In France and Spain, the level of deaths in the latest data has gone back to normal, while it is still 80 per cent more than normal levels in the UK.