European heatwave wiped €2bn from value of grain crop, analysis estimates
France and Hungary worst hit by lost production of maize and wheat
Europe’s June heatwave wiped more than €2bn from the value of its grain crop, according to new analysis, with France and Hungary bearing the brunt of the damage.
Almost 9mn tonnes were removed from forecasts for grain production across the EU and UK in the four weeks following the heatwave, according to Coceral, the European grain traders’ association.
Analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit valued the lost production at about €2.1bn in national farm-gate prices for wheat, barley, maize and other grains, or about 5 per cent using 2025 production value estimates.
The heat struck wheat during the critical period when kernels were filling in central and southern France, southern Germany, Austria, Poland and Hungary, Coceral said. Spring barley was more badly affected than the winter barley crop, which was largely developed before the temperatures rose.
The hottest June on record for western Europe follows a temperature rise of 3C over the 1991-2020 average, In France, the thermometer reached a high of more than 43C and in Hungary the peak was more than 40C.
Benoît Merlo, who grows cereals and raises beef cattle on a 300-hectare organic farm in Ain, eastern France, said he had spent a decade trying to protect his farm from hotter and drier conditions.
“I’ve been working on my farm for 10 years to make it more resilient through cover crops, crop rotations and species adapted to hotter and drier conditions,” he said.
“But with temperatures exceeding 38C for weeks on end, everything is breaking down. I’m expecting yield losses of at least 50 per cent, or even 70 per cent, for certain crops, such as soya. We’re no longer heading for a crash — we’re already there.”
About half of the reduction in Europe’s grain forecast came from maize, used mainly for livestock feed, which was caught during pollination in France and Hungary. Coceral cut its forecast for the EU and UK maize crop from 57.2mn tonnes to 52.7mn tonnes.
The EU is a net importer of the crop in poor harvest years, meaning the shortfall could increase demand for shipments from suppliers including Ukraine and Brazil.
The smaller French harvest could also reduce the amount of wheat available for export to buyers in north and west Africa, while higher feed costs are likely to filter through to livestock producers in coming months.
France accounted for almost half of the grain crop damage. Its forecast was cut by 4.1mn tonnes, worth about €891mn at current prices.
Most of its reduction came from maize, for which the forecast was lowered by 3.35mn tonnes to 9.4mn tonnes — below even the crop produced during the severe drought of 2022.
Hungary suffered the second-largest hit, with its grain forecast cut by 2.4mn tonnes, valued at about €444mn. Spain lost a further 1.4mn tonnes, worth €276mn, while Germany’s forecast was lowered by roughly the same amount, equivalent to €233mn of production.
The impact could be exacerbated for Hungarian farmers because domestic producer prices fell as the harvest approached, with cheaper Black Sea grain weighing on the market. That leaves growers facing the loss of production without the partial offset from higher prices, which could be received by some French farmers.
“This will hit farmers in the pockets, reducing their income and undermining European food security at the same time,” said Tom Lancaster, ECIU land, food and farming analyst.
The ECIU estimate represents the market value of production removed from harvest forecasts rather than the loss of farm profits. Higher prices may compensate some growers whose crops survived, while others may have sold grain forward before prices rose.
Upward revisions to harvests in Bulgaria, Romania, Italy and Finland reduced the net change in the value of expected European production to about €1.79bn. The analysis put the gross value of lost crops at between €2bn and €2.3bn under different price assumptions.
The losses come as EU governments negotiate the future of the bloc’s Common Agricultural Policy.
Théo Paquet, senior policy officer at the European Environmental Bureau, said instead of subsidies being used to fund resilience to climate change, they “continue to fund harmful practices that contribute directly to these crises — fuelling an expensive and unsustainable feedback loop”.