European airline emissions grow despite targets
Increases in flight numbers, aircraft size and distance flown drive up CO2 levels
European airlines have continued to increased their carbon emissions despite an industry target to cut them to half their 2005 levels by the middle of the century, a new report has said.
The European Aviation Environmental Report, produced by the EU’s environment and aviation safety agencies, found that net CO2 emissions from aviation had increased by 3 per cent to 136m tonnes between 2014 and 2017. The industry has set targets to cap net emissions from 2020 and to reduce by half by 2050 from 2005 levels.
Karima Delli, a member of the European Parliament and chair of its committee on transport and tourism, said: “While the benefits of air transport for EU citizens are clear in terms of mobility and connectivity, the sector represents a growing challenge for the environment in the years to come.”
The increase of 3 per cent in net carbon emissions includes the effect of the EU’s emissions trading system; without that, the increase was actually 10 per cent. The report predicted that carbon emissions would increase by 21 per cent to 2040.
Flights are getting more energy efficient, the report noted: since 2005 the average fuel used per 100 passenger kms had fallen by almost a quarter, including an average of 2.8 per cent each year from 2014 to 2017.
However, “this efficiency gain was not sufficient to counterbalance the increase in CO2 emitted due to the growth in the number of flights, aircraft size and flown distance”.
The report predicted that the number of flights was likely to grow by 42 per cent to 2040 and noted that the average distance of a European flight had increased by 16 per cent to 1,714km since 2005. The total kilometres flown by passengers has increased to 1.64tn since 2005, up 60 per cent.
The report also found direct financial implications for airlines of increased emissions. The price of a tonne of CO2 under the EU’s emissions trading scheme had been between €4 and €6 during 2013-2017, but in September 2018 that had risen to €20.
Andrew Murphy of Transport & Environment, a Brussels-based group for non-governmental organisations, has calculated that — given the increased number of credits airlines would need to buy — this would cost them €738m in 2020 at €20 a tonne, up from around €150m in 2016.
Mr Murphy said: “Aviation is the most carbon intensive mode of transport so it’s no surprise that it risks an increasing cost from climate measures. But that cost can be mitigated if the sector steps up investment in new aircraft and fuels.”
“Without that investment, the sector will be way off their own modest goal of halving emissions by 2050,” he added.
The report was also produced by Eurocontrol, which co-ordinates the continent’s air traffic management agencies.