Europe Express: Macron and Merz move on from fighter jet heartbreak
The threat of a Le Pen presidency has provided an incentive for Paris and Berlin to come together
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron met in the Rhine Valley last week to try and repair relations after the acrimonious collapse of their flagship fighter jet project.
As so often in diplomacy between the two countries, the occasion was steeped in symbolism. This 26th annual Franco-German cabinet meeting took place at Augustusburg Castle, near Cologne, where Konrad Adenauer and Charles de Gaulle met in 1962 to discuss what would become the Élysée Treaty — an agreement that transformed two historic enemies into Europe’s closest partners.
This time, however, there was no grand bargain or defining new initiative. Relations have been bumpy in recent months, set back by Berlin’s decision to pull the plug on the jet element of the Future Combat Air System (FCAS).
Since Merz took office last year, the initial enthusiasm for renewed collaboration between Paris and Berlin has given way to resigned pragmatism. “We know by heart what is said about the Franco-German couple,” Macron admitted after the meeting. “The truth is, if it doesn't move forward, Europe doesn't move forward.”
Reimagining a post-FCAS method
Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to developing a joint combat cloud, the digital system designed to link aircraft, drones, sensors and command systems. But the months-long industrial dispute between contractors Dassault Aviation and Airbus has left deep scars.
Macron and Merz called for a new approach to managing joint defence projects. At stake is the future of the Main Ground Combat System, the Franco-German programme to develop the next generation battle tank that will replace France’s Leclerc and Germany’s Leopard 2. The project has been mired in delays and industrial wrangling.
Yet the two leaders appeared to differ on what the new approach should look like. Macron, who launched FCAS alongside then-Chancellor Angela Merkel at a similar cabinet meeting in 2017, argued for tighter governmental oversight to prevent such programmes from “drifting”. From Merz’s perspective, “industrial differences” cannot simply be overridden by political will.
FCAS is likely to serve as a cautionary tale, prompting Paris and Berlin to pursue smaller, more clearly defined forms of co-operation, according to Paul Maurice at the French Institute of International Relations. Such an approach would better suit Germany’s growing defence ambitions. “2017 — the era of the big speeches, the grand visions — is over,” Maurice said. “The world has completely changed.”
Merz’s hawkish shift on China
The two leaders seemed most in agreement on a tougher approach to China. That largely reflects a recent shift in Merz’s own thinking, according to government insiders.
The Chancellor was particularly forceful in discussions about how to better protect EU manufacturers from heavily subsidised Chinese imports and a devalued renminbi, one participant said. German carmakers continue to invest heavily in China despite official calls to “de-risk” and, according to Berlin government sources, are lobbying Merz’s coalition to go easy on trade measures being discussed in Brussels. But they are also shedding jobs and shutting down plants at home, spreading the pain to the country’s Mittelstand.
Macron appeared notably pleased, saying the two countries had “never been as aligned” on the issue. Merz did not contradict him, adding that China’s “€1bn-a-day” trade surplus with the EU “cannot carry on like this.” Paris and Berlin will outline joint proposals in September.
“It’s gradual, but we can see that Germany is starting to shift on the issue of European measures in the face of Chinese industry and its subsidies,” Maurice said.
Guntram Wolff at Bruegel was “disappointed” the two leaders failed to agree on joint measures at the joint cabinet meeting itself. But this is due to divergences within both Merz’s own government and his Christian Democratic Union party. While the German chancellor has recently “become a [China] hawk”, his economy minister Katherina Reiche, who hails from the CDU, is a dove, Wolff said.
The ghost of Marine Le Pen
The possible victory of Marine Le Pen in next year’s French presidential elections hung over the discussions. “It’s the elephant in the room,” Maurice said.
One participant said that the threat acted as an incentive rather than an inhibitor, with a German side willing to “engage, engage, engage with Paris” to cement whatever could be cemented in the next months. This is why Berlin is urging Paris to reach a compromise on the EU’s 2028-2034 budget plans.
But this is also where the French election campaign may clash with German demands: Merz wants the EU to trim agriculture spending and reduce cohesion funds to make space for increased defence and innovation spending.
Macron suggested Berlin would have to relent and agree to “smart cuts” that would preserve an “ambitious agricultural budget.” “Unfortunately for me it’s my third [EU budget] negotiation, I know what I am talking about,” said the Brussels-savvy president.
Europe “has built food sovereignty after the war, we need to defend it”, he added.
Both leaders insisted that closer Franco-German co-operation on nuclear deterrence would outlast any change of government in Paris, arguing that it reflected shared security interests rather than political alignment.
Macron insisted his offer to associate Germany more closely with France’s nuclear doctrine had no financial implication for Berlin. “The goal is to improve the continent’s security deterrence by fuelling even more uncertainty in our adversaries,” he said.
But this, as with many other topics including defence, EU enlargement, support for Ukraine and EU energy markets, would likely become more complicated for Paris and Berlin under a Le Pen presidency.
“The German hand will always be extended for deep, trustful co-operation with France, regardless of voters’ choice,” Merz said. Whether a President Le Pen would reciprocate is far less certain.