China’s bellicose behaviour is the driver of tensions in Asian waters
Region has become world’s busiest staging ground for military rivalry between Beijing and liberal democracies
This autumn is a hot one in Asian waters: varying groups of countries mostly allied with the US are holding military exercises in an area that China views as its backyard.
Two American and one British aircraft carrier held an exercise with 15 other warships from Japan, New Zealand, Canada and the Netherlands near Okinawa and in the Philippine Sea on October 2 to 3. Then the three carriers moved into the contested South China Sea, where they operated with Australian, Canadian, Japanese and New Zealand warships.
By now, the vessels from the UK, Australia and New Zealand are holding drills with those from Singapore and Malaysia. The American and Japanese warships and some Australian ones are sailing in the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal as part of Malabar, a drill started by India and the US but now combining the navies of all four Quad countries.
The string of manoeuvres is a harbinger of the region’s future. As competition between China and liberal democracies intensifies, east and south-east Asia is becoming the world’s busiest staging ground for the two sides’ military rivalry.
Analysts say China’s use of its growing military clout to assert expansive territorial claims against its neighbours and pursue regional dominance will compel outside powers to become more and more involved.
Japan is converting its helicopter carrier Kaga into an aircraft carrier and could deploy it to the South China Sea carrying F-35 jets in the years to come.
Last month, the US, UK and Australia stunned China by announcing Aukus, a security partnership that will enable Australia’s navy to project power into the entire Indo-Pacific with nuclear-propelled submarines. Huong Le Thu, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a think-tank backed by the Australian defence ministry, expects a multitude of similar arrangements between small groups of countries to emerge aimed at pushing back against China.
“The regional architecture was designed around the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, but Asean has a hard time being effective in times of crisis, tension and potential conflict,” she said. “Minilaterals are easier and faster mechanisms because countries are more like-minded and more focused. The Biden administration is likely to seek similar arrangements with other countries.”
The growing presence of external powers complicates things for China’s People’s Liberation Army.
When the Queen Elizabeth sailed in the South China Sea last week, a Chinese maritime survey vessel, which had repeatedly operated in the exclusive economic zones of other South China Sea claimant states, had to abruptly change its course to avoid the British aircraft carrier.
Beijing has given its adversaries a first taste of how it could eventually push back: during the six-nation naval exercise near Okinawa, almost 150 Chinese warplanes flew threatening manoeuvres in international airspace close to Taiwan.
In the South China Sea, Beijing’s reactions have been less drastic so far. Normally the PLA tracks US or allied warships in those waters with a small number of destroyers or frigates — enough to put the western ships into high alert, but dangerous incidents are comparatively rare.
“Operations against Japan and Taiwan are the PLA’s bread and butter, partly because they are closer to the Chinese mainland,” said Alexander Neill, an expert on Asian security affairs who runs a strategic consultancy in Singapore. “The South China Sea is still further out for the PLA.”
But that is changing. China has cemented several South China Sea reefs into artificial islands and built runways and other military installations. Security experts believe that these bastions, equipped with modern communications gear, have drastically expanded the PLA’s ability to track enemy ships and aircraft in the region and provide targeting data for missiles. Moreover, Beijing has stepped up military deployments on Hainan, including electronic warfare, early warning and anti-submarine warfare aircraft and large naval vessels.
“China’s eyes and ears are getting closer — their electronic and signals intelligence reach as far as Singapore now, and we may start seeing them use the newly deployed ships and aircraft soon,” said Neill.
South-east Asian countries have a harder time sitting on the fence. The PLA flew 16 fighter aircraft towards the coast of Borneo in June, triggering an angry response from Malaysia, a country normally trying to keep good relations with Beijing.
External powers are investing big to empower China’s neighbours to push back. The US, Japan and South Korea have all given coast guard ships to Vietnam. India has helped train Vietnamese sailors and offered financing for defence purchases.
“It is China’s coercion and self-isolating behaviour which contributes to this,” said Neill.