China virus outbreak: what we know so far
Experts expect number of confirmed cases to rise as deadly disease spreads overseas
As hundreds of millions of Chinese embark on the world’s biggest annual migration to travel home for the lunar new year holiday, authorities revealed a jump in the number of people infected with a deadly virus that has already killed nine people.
Senior health officials said on Wednesday that 440 people had tested positive for the newly identified coronavirus in 13 provinces. They recommended that people in Wuhan avoid large gatherings.
A team at the University of Hong Kong estimated on Tuesday that almost 1,700 people in Wuhan may have already been infected with the virus, and that it would have spread to 20 Chinese cities based on travel patterns and the cases that had so far been found overseas. Their findings were in line with estimates from Imperial College London.
Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at the University of Hong Kong, said he expected a “substantial upward revision” to the estimate following news of confirmed cases in more overseas countries.
Chinese health officials on Wednesday warned that the virus could be mutating and that there could be further spread of the disease.
Where has it spread internationally?
US health officials on Tuesday confirmed the first case of a person infected with the new coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is a man in his thirties just north of Seattle. He had travelled from Wuhan to the US.
Macau, the Chinese territory neighbouring Hong Kong, reported its first case on Wednesday in a businesswoman from Wuhan. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have identified cases over the past week, all of which have been linked to the city in central China, while Thailand has confirmed four cases of the virus.
How are people catching it?
Chinese health authorities say evidence suggests the disease is transmitted through the respiratory tract.
Early cases of the virus were linked to a market in Wuhan that sells animals as well as seafood. The market was closed at the start of January in an attempt to contain the outbreak. Live chickens and wild animals destined for sale have now been banned from the city.
After the initial outbreak, other patients were found that had not been in contact with the market.
“Our experts believe the cases are mostly linked to Wuhan,” said Li Bin, vice-minister of China’s National Health Commission, on Wednesday. “There has already been human-to-human transmission and infection of medical workers and there is community-based transmission at a certain scale.”
Professor Leung said the biggest questions were whether sustained human-to-human transmission would take place between people with no connection to Wuhan and if there was now more than one epicentre.
“Given those upward adjusted numbers, are they going to turn into a second or third epicentre? And . . . the containment strategy within Wuhan, is that possible? That is, I think, that is the big unknown,” he said, referring to government measures in response to the outbreak.
How have Chinese authorities responded?
The city of Wuhan and Hubei province have been told to intensify their emergency response, and wild animals and live poultry destined for sale have been banned from the city. Temperature checks have been brought in to test people at airports, train stations, coach stations and ports.
A strict isolation policy has been introduced for patients with a temperature as well as for their close contacts.
The whole country must now make daily reports, even if there are no new cases, Mr Li said on Wednesday.
Health authorities said anyone with a fever, coughing, difficulty breathing who had either visited Wuhan, or was in touch with someone who had visited the city should seek hospital treatment. The public was reminded to wash their hands regularly and to wear a mask in hospitals or clinics.
How did the outbreak start?
Gao Fu, head of China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said on Monday that evidence had been found linking the new coronavirus to wildlife at the market. according to China Daily. However, the animal involved had not been identified.
A 2002-2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), the deadly virus that killed more than 800 people, was passed to humans via contact with civet cats.